The Patriots offense has changed a lot along with the players fantasy values.
Aaron Hernandez had an incredible opportunity to be a 2013 breakout player. Rob Gronkowski just got surgery and is expected to start pre-season on the PUP list. With Gronk out and Wes Welker gone to Denver, this was bound to be Aaron’s breakout year. He really seems to have messed that up though as he is tied to a murder and will most likely be arrested. While nothing is final, the odds in him not going to jail seem to be against him. His fantasy value has plummeted to about 0 at this point unless something dramatic happens in which he is innocent and isn’t suspended any games.
These offensive changes will mostly effect Tom Brady. Normally a top-5 QB in fantasy points, this might be the year he isn’t. With all of his top targets from last year either injured, having legal troubles, or a free-agent, Brady is going to be throwing to some new people this year. His top two wide-outs look to be ex-Ram Danny Amendola and Rookie Aaron Dobson. While neither of these two options are bad, they certainly aren’t elite. If both of them develop, Brady could post similar numbers to 2012 but not as good. Brady will probably end up with the 5th-10th most fantasy points for QBs.
Danny Amendola’s value just keeps going up and up. It immediately rose when he became a Patriot. It then has also gone up with Hernandez and Gronk being extremely questionable for 2013. Amendola has the potential to be amazing this year. He could post numbers extremely similar to what Welker was – 100+ catches and 1200 yards is a definite possibility. The one downside to Amendola is his ability to stay healthy. With an injury-filled past, this could be his downfall.
A rookie out of Marshall University, Dobson could be in for a huge year. At 6’3, 210 lbs and a 4.43 40 time, Dobson is a physical presence who could start from week one. At Marshall University, he didn’t have a single dropped ball out of his 100+ targets senior year. This could bode well with Brady as he hopes to build some chemistry during training camp and the off-season. If everything pans out and Dobson starts, a 1000 yard season would not be surprising.