It’s lucky Week 13 here at the Tailgater, and that means we’re a few weeks away from conference championship games and the final decision on bowl matchups.
Since September we have enjoyed a dozen Saturdays (and Tuesdays and Wednesdays and Thursdays and Fridays as well) with college football action. The cycle draws closer to a close, leaving less time for each of us to make a move in the season race to prove ourselves the best prognosticator in the group.
Two of us ended up at .500, while Matt bottomed out with just three correct covers last week. That allowed Zach to pull ahead in the cumulative standings and build a small lead. When it all balanced out, here’s how each of us fared picking Week 12 games against the spread:
- Zach Bigalke: 6-4
- John Mitchell: 5-5
- Matt Strobl: 3-7
After ceding ground last weekend, can Strobl catch back up? Is it too late for John to vault back closer to .500 on the year? Let’s dive into the picks and see where it leads us this week…
Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars (-2.5)
Strobl: Cincinnati ha quietly crept back into the AAC discussion, but there’s still a considerable talent gap between the Bearcats and the conference’s three best teams. Houston couldn’t get past UCF or Louisville, but there’s no shame in losing those two games. The Cougars continue to be competitive against quality opponents, and when the competition gets a little easier they take full advantage. I’m a little surprised that this line is so small, but I’m happy enough to give the points here. PICK: Houston
Mitchell: Houston is a much better team than most (including myself) have given them credit for this season. They have lost three games this season by a combined 13 points to three really good teams in BYU, UCF, and Louisville. Cincinnati, on the other hand, isn’t as good as their record shows. They got blown out by a bad Illinois team, and also lost to South Florida, who is an AAC cellar dweller. The Bearcats have won five straight, but they haven’t exactly been playing stellar competition. The Cougars are at home, and I expect John O’Korn to have a big day against the Bearcats. PICK: Houston
Bigalke: I’ve been trying to talk up Houston this season, but people haven’t wanted to listen. The Cougars are one of those sneaky good teams that is in the top 30 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. No team has a better turnover margin than Houston, either, as the defense averages more than three turnovers per game and has a +2.2 per-game turnover rate. Cincinnati has a better defense and nearly as good an offense, but it also gives away the ball more than it takes it away. Against a team like the Cougars, whose defensive scheme is predicated on getting the ball back to John O’Korn and crew on offense, turnovers can and will be deadly. PICK: Houston
Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (-4.5)
Strobl: In case you needed more proof that the Big 12 is a league of parity, look no further than this line. Despite its status as a college football blueblood and a recent blowout win, Oklahoma comes in as the underdog here. That scenario made the Sooners a popular choice throughout the week, yet the line has actually grown despite the pick distribution favoring OU. This is now essentially requiring K-State to win by a touchdown in order to cover, and while that may seem a tall task, the Wildcats’ rushing attack warrants the love. As inconsistent as the Sooners have been, I’m happy to let Vegas tell me what to do on this one. PICK: Kansas State
Mitchell: I’m sure most people were surprised to see Kansas State open as 3.5-point favorites. The masses jumped to bet on Oklahoma looking for the easy money, but Vegas was not deterred, and bumped the line a full point more in the Wildcats’ favor. The simple truth in this game is that nobody in the Big 12 wants any part of Bill Snyder’s team right now. After a 2-4 start that included a season opening loss to North Dakota State and an 0-3 start in conference play, Kansas State has reeled off four straight wins. They gave Baylor their toughest game of the season, and suffered narrow losses to both Texas and Oklahoma State. It’s been a remarkable in-season turnaround for the Wildcats, and that resurgence should continue in Manhattan this weekend as they earn their fifth consecutive win and cover this spread. PICK: Kansas State
Bigalke: Look, I’ve been down on Oklahoma in the past. They’ve been far overrated for much of the past few seasons. That said, people are looking at Pyrrhic victories and suddenly thinking Collin Klein still plays quarterback in Manhattan. The Stoops brothers still need to figure out a way to make the offense more efficient, but they’ve at least got the defense dialed in. Neither team is great, but the visitors are too experienced and too well-coached to get too down about last week’s result. That ought to make all the difference for the Sooners on Saturday. PICK: Oklahoma
Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+20.5)
Strobl: Several Oregon players were quoted this week as being down on the Rose Bowl. The outbursts made them seem like a bunch of of whiners; complaining about getting to a BCS bowl smacks of arrogance. I understand what they were trying to say. Who wouldn’t prefer a shot at the National Championship Game? But disparaging the Rose Bowl and its historical tie to the Pac-12 was the wrong way to express that sentiment. Besides, all the Ducks need to do in order to get their title shot one of these years is to beat a good defense. All that off-the-field hubbub aside, Arizona has failed to emerge as a legitimate contender, and Oregon is still a dominant force. PICK: Oregon
Mitchell: Stanford’s loss to USC gave the Ducks new life as they now control their own destiny in the Pac-12 race as they eye another Rose Bowl trip. Even a hobbled Marcus Mariota is better than most quarterbacks in the country, as the Ducks signal caller has still yet to throw an interception this season. The Ducks rebounded well last week as they had little trouble dispatching giant slayer Utah at home. The Wildcats have the benefit of home field, but they’ve dropped two games in a row, and they simply aren’t on the same level as Oregon. PICK: Oregon
Bigalke: They’re currently the best of the one-loss teams left standing in the country. The X-factor, as it has been the past couple weeks, is the continued health of Marcus Mariota’s knee; while the quarterback continues to throw well despite the injury, his inability to run has seriously impeded the effectiveness of the ground game. At the same time, Rich Rodriguez has done some solid things to get Arizona on a winning track in his first few years in Tucson. Don’t expect this one to look even remotely close, though… PICK: Oregon
BYU Cougars at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (EVEN)
Strobl: A dead even spread in South Bend has to rankle Notre Dame a bit. The requisite home three is conspicuously absent in this toss-up, and with good reason. Though they’ve somehow beaten Michigan State and Arizona State this year, Notre Dame continues to be a shell of its former self defensively, and Tommy Rees has been serviceable at best. In my opinion, the best player on the field in this matchup will be BYU’s Taysom Hill, and in conjunction with tailback Jamaal Williams, he should be able to do some damage to the Irish front. We should get the tight game we’re expecting, but I have to lean Cougars here. PICK: BYU
Mitchell: This is a toss-up in every sense of the word, and Vegas agrees with no points being given in either direction. I think BYU is probably the better team, but the Irish having home field and the extra week of preparation will probably be the difference. Both teams have been tough to figure out this season. Both have impressive wins with the Irish sporting victories over Michigan State, USC, and Arizona State. The Cougars own wins over Texas, Georgia Tech, and Houston. Both also sport inexplicable losses; BYU to Virginia and Notre Dame to Pittsburgh. So, it’s been hard to get a read on either. When in doubt, go with the home team, so I’ll give the nod to the Irish. PICK: Notre Dame
Bigalke: Mormons versus Catholics, independent neophyte versus the quintessence of independence. This one is in South Bend, but the advantage swings squarely in favor of the Cougars. While they may have lost on the road in Camp Randall Stadium, this year’s incarnation of the Fighting Irish is nowhere near the same caliber as the Badgers, or even as its BCS-finalist squad last season. Look for Taysom Hill to do some damage while Touchdown Jesus watches, and for Kyle van Noy and crew to give Tommy Rees another hellish day taking snaps. PICK: BYU
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers (-4.5)
Strobl: Man, I wish this line had been smaller. The A&M offense is clearly one of the most potent in the nation, but its defense is a huge liability. LSU is more balanced but lacks the overall explosiveness that Johnny Manziel brings to the field. In other seasons, I might cite LSU’s defensive prowess and assume that the Tigers could control the gunslinging Manziel, but this edition of the Bayou Bengals isn’t as stalwart as past squads. LSU couldn’t stop Alabama despite knowing what was coming, and that makes me nervous. Will they have better luck with an air-based attack? Perhaps, but it’s still hard to see this game game being anything but a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. But in spite of the evidence, there’s this voice in my head saying that Manziel is due for some comeuppance. All year I’ve watched him make ill-advised decisions and get away with them. Maybe LSU will be the ones to make him pay. PICK: LSU
Mitchell: This line gives me pause a bit as it’s a little higher than I would have expected, which makes me think something is up. LSU has been the only team so far that was able to slow down Johnny Manziel since his Texas A&M debut last season. But that was last year, and this LSU defense is a far cry from last season’s version. They have had an extra week off to lick their wounds a bit from a three touchdown loss to Alabama in a very physical game. I just don’t think the Tigers are going to have an answer for Manziel, and while I do expect Zach Mettenberger and the LSU offense to put a lot of points on the board, but I can’t see him out dueling the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. PICK: Texas A&M
Bigalke: Is this the penultimate conference game for Johnny Football? If so, it will be his last chance to pay back LSU after the Tigers were the only team to really make him stumble en route to his Heisman coronation in 2012. The home team doesn’t have the same quality of defense as it did last year, but its offense has been vastly improved. Zach Mettenberger and crew are likely salivating at the prospect of getting to play against the Aggies’ sieve-like stop unit. Would it surprise me if this one ended up a shootout like the A&M-Alabama game earlier this year? If that happens, this one ought to be decided by a late field goal. GIven the size of the spread margin, that would favor Sumlin’s crew over the Mad Hatter and the hosts. PICK: Texas A&M
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