Most of the rest of these teams are looking in from outside the BCS rankings this week, but two losses still offers the potential for some surprises to occur in the second half of the season. We’re down to a lucky 13 finalists after a weekend of attrition dealt Wyoming, Western Kentucky, Navy, UNLV, and Old Dominion each a third defeat on their records. There’s still chance for history to be made, but none of these eight can afford another slip-up if they want to stay in the race.
6. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (SUN/4-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 11th
- BCS RANKING: 39th (.0002)
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: win at Western Kentucky 37-20
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 22 at Arkansas State
The Sun Belt is going to have a hard time placing any team in the BCS, much less into the automatic berth in future seasons as the best-placed of the mid-major teams. It will probably require a perfect season for the improbable to become possible. But the Ragin’ Cajuns, unlike all the other teams below them in this week’s BCS Buster Power Rankings, have at least slotted into the inaugural standings of the 2013 season. Thanks to one 25th-place vote in the coaches’ poll, Louisiana-Lafayette at least has anted up and has been dealt its hand. They must knock off Arkansas State this weekend to take sole possession of the Sun Belt; from there, they probably still have to hope for chaos above them.
7. Bowling Green Falcons (MAC/5-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 6th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: idle
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 26 vs. Toledo
Working in Bowling Green’s favor is the fact that their only two losses have come to AQ-conference teams. Working against the Falcons is the fact that those two teams, Indiana and Mississippi State, are a combined 4-7 against opponents not named Bowling Green. They sat idle this weekend and watched the Ragin’ Cajuns vault above them thanks to that unknown coach, but because they’re positioned in the MAC East the Falcons can just sit back and watch to see who emerges from the West. Ohio on November 12 is bound to be a tough test, but the biggest contest of the year for the Falcons will likely be an elimination game in the season finale against surprise contender Buffalo. If both teams can reach that November 29 battle with 9-2 records, it could be an elimination game for more than just a MAC title game berth.
8. Tulane Green Wave (C-USA/5-2)
- PRESEASON POWER RANKING: 7th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- LAST WEEK: idle
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 26 vs. Tulsa
No matter what happens in the second half of the season, Tulane has already wildly exceeded expectations. The Green Wave come out of their bye week tied with Rice for the lead in C-USA West; like Bowling Green and Buffalo, that season finale between Tulane and the Owls could be for more than just a C-USA championship game berth. With Tulsa suffering through a down campaign, the only other team that could possibly trip up Tulane before November 30 would possibly be UTSA or UTEP. At this point both are highly unlikely to deal with the momentum that has been built up in New Orleans. The dark spot on their record, though, has to be that two-point loss to South Alabama back in September; C-USA is still slightly behind the MWC and MAC, making a second loss that much harder to overcome.
9. East Carolina Pirates (C-USA/5-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 8th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: win vs. Southern Mississippi 55-14
- NEXT GAME: Nov. 2 at Florida International
Oh, how costly could that overtime loss to Tulane be for the Pirates? ECU has had a charmed season, coming within five points of beating Virginia Tech and later trouncing North Carolina in Chapel Hill. But in a game where they were favored, East Carolina couldn’t handle the mojo being worked in the Big Easy. Shane Carden got back to his accurate, winning ways against Southern Miss this weekend (30-of-37, 308 yards, 3 TD), and the running game was effective enough by committee to go over 100 yards. But if this squad is to have any outside shot at a BCS berth, it needs the Green Wave to emerge as the West champion. Only a rematch that resulted in an ECU victory offers any hope of forcing the BCS’s hand this year.
10. Ohio Bobcats (MAC/5-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 10th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: win at Eastern Michigan 56-28
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 26 vs. Miami-Ohio
Last year Ohio was just outside the BCS top 25 when it first released. This year they beat up Eastern Michigan 56-28, but the last memory in pollsters’ heads seemed to be their three-point loss at home to the same Central Michigan team that NIU had just destroyed on the road. Frank Solich’s squad has plenty of talent, especially on offense with QB Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship, but consistency has been an issue the past few seasons. The Bobcats will either sink or swim at the beginning of November, when a road swing takes them to play at Buffalo and at Bowling Green on consecutive Saturdays. If they can’t pull off the upset in both games, another MAC campaign slips through the cracks in Oxford.
11. Marshall Thundering Herd (C-USA/4-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 14th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: idle
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 24 at Middle Tennessee
Marshall continues to rank in the top 30 in both points scored and points allowed, making the Thundering Herd especially dangerous. Also working in their favor is the fact that they, not East Carolina, sit atop the C-USA East standings with the only remaining undefeated conference record in that division. A November 29 showdown with the Pirates should determine which one takes on Tulane/Rice in the C-USA Championship Game, but Marshall will have to run its conference schedule to get to that point beforehand. Nothing too taxing should stand in the path of Rakeem Cato and crew, with this weekend’s trip to Middle Tennessee probably the toughest challenge before the season finale.
12. Buffalo Bulls (MAC/5-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: 15th
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: win at Massachusetts 32-3
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 26 at Kent State
When the Bulls started the season 0-2 with losses against Ohio State and Baylor, it merely seemed like the beginning of another inept campaign in Buffalo. But those two teams have proven themselves to be top-10 squads nationally, and suddenly the Bulls are sitting atop the MAC East with Bowling Green and nominally in position to still contend for BCS inclusion. The biggest challenge before the season finale against the Falcons will come on November 5 when they host Ohio; survive that, and we could see two division championship games in the MAC on the final weekend.
13. Rice Owls (C-USA/5-2)
- LAST WEEK’S RANKING: not ranked
- BCS RANKING: not ranked
- THIS WEEK’S RESULT: win at New Mexico State 45-19
- NEXT GAME: Oct. 26 vs. UTEP
The last of the two-loss mid-majors, Rice sits alongside Tulane in the C-USA West standings. Their two losses have come at Texas A&M and at home to Houston, but they do have a BCS-conference victory on their resume (albeit over hapless Kansas). The Owls have no passing attack to write home about, but when you’re able to rack up 400 yards on the ground that tends to matter less. If they can reach the season finale against the Green Wave without any more blemishes, Rice can certainly position itself to reach the conference championship game. North Texas is the team that would have the best chance to derail those plans when the Owls travel to Denton on Halloween.
Out of the Race
- Wyoming Cowboys (MWC/4-3, loss vs. Colorado State 52-22)
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (SUN/4-3, loss vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 37-20)
- Navy Midshipmen (IND/3-3, loss at Toledo 45-44 OT)
- UNLV Rebels (MWC/4-3, loss at Fresno State 38-14)
- Old Dominion Monarchs (IND/3-3, loss at Pittsburgh 35-24)
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