Most of our picks last week converged, meaning we would either sink or swim by the results of the Saturday games. Luckily for all of us, most of those choices came through, highlighted by Missouri’s upset of Georgia. Ultimately, though, Matt pulled even with me in the overall standings after I laid the points with Texas A&M and fell for the decision.
After last week, though, everyone’s record looks better overall. When it all balanced out, here’s how each of us fared picking Week 6 games against the spread:
- Matt Strobl: 8-2
- Zach Bigalke: 7-3
- John Mitchell: 7-3
For the second straight week Matt finished a game ahead of the other Tailgaters. Entering the second half of the season, there is ample opportunity for anyone to take the title of top prognosticator. But will the selections diverge this week?
After the chaos of last weekend shuffled the top 25, will there be more upsets this weekend? Let’s fire up the grill, crack open a cold one, and get down to business before games start tomorrow. Here’s who we like this week…
UCF Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-12.5)
Mitchell: Louisville didn’t look very sharp last week against Rutgers, and UCF is far and away the best opponent they’ve seen this season. The Cardinals are undefeated, but UCF is is 4-1 in their own right with the lone blemish on their record being a loss to South Carolina. And they acquitted themselves very nicely against the SEC power suffering only a three-point defeat. Playing at home certainly gives Louisville the edge, but UCF is no stranger to tough road environments having already secured a win in Happy Valley over Penn State. Teddy Bridgewater gets the bulk of the media attention, and rightfully so, but Knights QB Blake Bortles is no slouch in his own right. I think UCF is a legitimate contender in the AAC, and while I don’t think they’ll be able to pull the upset, I do think they will keep the deficit in the single digits. PICK: UCF
Bigalke: Will the Knights cover a 12.5-point spread? Honestly, I think the real question is not whether UCF will keep this game at Papa John’s Stadium close, but whether they will do to the Cardinals what they did earlier this season to the Nittany Lions (and quite nearly did to South Carolina as well). Blake Bortles will give the Louisville defense fits in a way no other team has been able to do this season; and even if they don’t upset the Cardinals outright, UCF has been given way too big a point differential to play with here. After tonight, win or lose, Louisville’s threat to the final BCS championship race will be rendered moot. PICK: UCF
Strobl: This spread is fairly hefty considering that the Cardinals have looked less than steller of late and that the Golden Knights are a fundamentally sound team. Yet for whatever reason I’m tempted to take Louisville. That doesn’t really make sense; the Cards weren’t even able to seaprate from Rutgers by any great margin. The Knights the Louisville will face this week are the better ones. I’m going to do something I try to stay away from and deviate from my first instinct. PICK: UCF
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+3)
Mitchell: I’m as impressed as anyone with Missouri’s 6-0 start to the season. They missed a bowl game last season, and have already reached bowl eligibility midway through October this year. Some doubted the strength of this team after a soft start to the season in scheduling terms, but the Tigers proved they were legitimate contenders in the SEC East race with a big road win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are beat up, for sure, but it was still an impressive display by Gary Pinkel’s crew. The win came at a price though, as starting QB James Franklin was lost for a few weeks with a shoulder injury. Maty Mauk is a talented redshirt freshman, but making your first collegiate start against this Florida defense isn’t the most ideal of terms. I think the Gators will shut down the Tigers offense, and Tyler Murphy will do enough to put a few points on the board for the Florida offense. PICK: Florida
Bigalke: As much as Florida continues to be a hot dark-horse pick in the SEC East this season, I’m still not seeing it with this incarnation of the Gators. People love the top-five defense; I see a crew that has already dropped two games and is watching its offense melt down by the week. Say what you will about Missouri, but the difference between this season and last season is the fact that they don’t have to have James Franklin to win games. The Tigers can play SEC ball, one of those memorable defensive struggles of seasons past, and against Florida they’ve got plenty to bottle up Muschamp’s patchwork unit. While it’s a greenhorn freshman (Maty Mauk, little brother of former Cincinnati slinger Ben Mauk) under center, Gary Pinkel’s crew should be able to win this one outright to improve to 7-0 on the season. PICK: Missouri
Strobl: If James Franklin were healthy I might be tempted to take Mizzou. The Tigers showed me a lot in their win over Georgia, but in victory they lost their primary weapon. Florida struggled at LSU last week, but presents Missouri with a far tougher defense than the one it saw in Athens. After turning the SEC East on its ear last week, I expect the Tigers to see a return to the status quo, despite their homefield advantage. PICK: Florida
UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-6)
Mitchell: I trusted Vegas last week, and it worked as a I compiled a 7-3 record against the spread. We are going to stick with that this week. Yes, the Cardinal are at home, but after their debacle last week on the road against Utah, it’s hard to justify them being a six point favorite over an undefeated UCLA team. The Utes gave the Bruins a tough game earlier in the season, but Brett Hundley and company were still able to pull out the victory on the road. The Bruins are legit, and the odds-on-favorite to repeat as PAC-12 South Division Champs, and Stanford doesn’t seem to be as good as most thought entering the season. Still, Vegas wants you to pick UCLA, and this spread has trended up all week despite the betting being split down the middle. Look for Stanford to rebound and top the Bruins by at least a touchdown. PICK: Stanford
Bigalke: The issue with this game is past history. Too many people are going to look at the fact that Stanford knocked off the Bruins on the last weekend of the regular season last year and again the following weekend in the Pac-12 Championship Game and assume that it will happen again. And while Stanford might win, UCLA is just as legitimate a contender both for the conference spoils and on a national level. Brett Hundley is the real deal at quarterback, quietly ranked at 13th in passer rating — third behind Marcus Mariota and Sean Mannion, but ahead of players like Aaron Murray, A.J. McCarron, and a certain Kevin Hogan that’ll be lining up taking the snaps on alternate drives on Saturday. He’ll be the difference as the Bruins open a few more eyes in the national title hunt. PICK: UCLA
Strobl: Stanford has had its struggles this year, none more damaging than last week’s loss in Salt Lake City. But it’s hardly time for the Cardinal faithful to abandon ship. UCLA is a talented team and Brett Hundley is one of the better pressure-situation quarterbacks in the country. What he did at Nebraska, down big in the first half, is still one of my most vivid memories of the early season. But this will be the best team he’s face, by far, and he’ll be on unfriendly turf to boot. I like Stanford to rally defensively, limit what UCLA can do, and help keep Kevin Hogan and company on the field. PICK: Stanford
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-13.5)
Mitchell: Gus Malzahn has engineered a heck of a turnaround for this Auburn team from a year ago in his first season as the Tigers’ head coach. Auburn was historically bad last season, but as we’ve seen so far this season, it was more of a coaching deficiency than a talent one in 2012. The Tigers are off to a 5-1 start, and ranked in the AP Top 25. Texas A&M is also 5-1 after surviving a wild game in Oxford last weekend. This figures to be a track meet with Texas A&M’s defensive struggles and the presence of Johnny Football on their sideline. Auburn has a solid defense, but nobody has been able to stop Manziel, and I don’t see that changing in College Station on Saturday. It’ll be close for a while, but the Aggies will pull away in the fourth. PICK: Texas A&M
Bigalke: Maybe Johnny Football will work his magic again to keep the Aggies nominally in the SEC West and BCS races. Maybe he won’t, and A&M will take its second defeat of the season. Either way, he is bound to engineer some heroics. But while the home team should and likely will win this contest, Auburn isn’t likely to go away until the final whistle has pealed at College Station and the Tigers are returning back to the Plains. Nearly two touchdowns is a lot to give against a team that is not nearly as strong offensively but comparatively stronger defensively. Look for this one to go down to the wire. PICK: Auburn
Strobl: Louisville is giving 12.5 and the computers like them to win by 12. Texas A&M is giving 13.5 and the computers like them to win 12.5. In both cases, when the numbers are crunched, even the machines aren’t convinced one way or the other. The “experts” are no help either; roam the Internet and you’ll see a division of opinion on any site picking against the spread. In the end, this one comes down to the venue and Johnny Manziel. I’m more confident in his ability to do something miraculaous than I am in Auburn’s ability to keep this within two touchdowns. PICK: Texas A&M
BYU Cougars at Houston Cougars (+9.5)
Mitchell: I think BYU is the far superior team here. Yeah, Houston is undefeated, but vastly untested. They’ve played just one team with a winning record to this point in the season, which culminated in a narrow victory over Rice. BYU, on the other hand, is only 4-2, but they’ve been tested a lot more through the first half of the season. The Cougars have already played the likes of Virginia, Texas, Utah, and Georgia Tech this year. The Cougars looked impressive in their 18 point win over Georgia Tech last week, and I think they’ll keep the momentum rolling at Reliant Stadium. Look for Houston to suffer their first blemish of the season as BYU wins by two scores. PICK: BYU
Bigalke: BYU is still technically very much in the BCS Buster race, but what Houston has done this season is far overrated. Having moved to the rebranded incarnation of the former Big East, the Cougars might be another legitimate challenger to Louisville this year after a losing record in its final year of C-USA play. Excluding their romp over FCS Southern in the season opener, they’re knocking off FBS opponents by an average of just under two touchdowns a game. BYU will be a bigger challenger than Rice, UTSA, Temple or Memphis, but the game is being played in Texas and BYU has cooled considerably after their then-landmark upset of the Longhorns. Put your money on Tony Levine’s crew to at least cover this spread at home. PICK: Houston
Strobl: To sum up this week in a single thought: Who knows? That sentiment applies not only to the slate of games as a whole, but to this matchup in particular. This week’s lines force a guessing game– what will Louisville do against a tough opponent, can Mizzou operate without Franklin, how good is Auburn? In the same vein, which BYU team will show up at Reliant Stadium on Saturday? The one that topped Texas, Utah State, and Georgia Tech by comfortable margins? Or the one that lost to Virginia on the road? In a now familiar refrain, the computers are no help, as they like BYU by eight…that doesn’t leave much margin for error with this 9.5-point spread. Houston will be amped up for this game, but BYU is more talented. I expect a close contest, but the Cougars by ten seems reasonable when all is said and done. PICK: BYU
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