Week five offered one of the strangest weekends in terms of picking against the spread; while we had not had a single push on the line through the first four weeks, we picked two games this week that led to null results.
Thus our records on the last weekend of September look more like soccer formations than the calculation of our acumen against the spread. Here’s how each of us fared:
- Matt Strobl: 5-3-2
- Zach Bigalke: 5-3-2
- John Mitchell: 3-5-2
If not for picking Purdue over Northern Illinois, Matt would have snagged the lead in the group last week. I was able to right the ship somewhat to finish in a tie with Matt, but John continues to be plagued by misfortune after posting another sub-.500 week of selections. Sooner or later the pendulum is due to swing back; midnight will eventually ring on my Cinderella picks, while John will return to his more successful prognosticating ways. Will this be the week?
Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-15.5)
Mitchell: It’s hard to bet against Jameis Winston at home, as the redshirt freshman has been spectacular through his first four college games. But, Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown has had a great start to the season as well in leading the Terps to a 4-0 start. Randy Edsall’s team is much improved from last season, and they’ve had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Tallahassee after dismantling West Virginia 37-0 two weeks ago. Brown, armed with one of the best wide receivers in the country in Stefon Diggs, figure to give Florida State’s defense a ton of problems. Still, Maryland has never won in Tallahassee, and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday. However, I do expect the Terps to keep the game closer than the 15.5 point spread. PICK: Maryland
Bigalke: The Terps have looked amazingly good so far this season. (I guess that’s what happens when your players don’t drop like flies in Siberia and you can actually play a QUARTERBACK at quarterback.) Florida State has also looked as good as can be, but the Seminoles have duped us before. This is a matchup of two teams with well-balanced offenses, stout defenses, and plenty of significance in the conference and national races. After watching FSU struggle with inferior competition against Boston College last weekend, I’m thankful this spread is set so ludicrously large. PICK: Maryland
Strobl: Until last week, the Seminoles were tearing through opponents. Averaging 52 points per game and yielding fewer than nine points per week, FSU looked like a true FBS powerhouse. Then came Boston College. On the road in Chestnut Hill, the ‘Noles looked flawed. The offense was choppy. The defense confused. Was it a one-week aberration? Evidence of travel fatigue? Possibly; BC hardly represents much of a step up in competition. On the other hand, maybe Florida State isn’t quite that dominant after all. Enter Maryland, which has clawed its way into national rankings. Yes, the Terps must go to Tallahassee, but they’re also quite a bit better than anyone FSU has faced. Moreover, Florida State has Clemson next week, and there’s a real danger of the Seminoles overlooking this matchup. I like FSU to win, but Maryland should be able to stay within two touchdowns. PICK: Maryland
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (EVEN)
Mitchell: This game is a toss-up, and Vegas agrees with neither team getting a single point. Iowa opened the season with a loss at home to Northern Iowa, and it looked like Kirk Ferentz’s bunch was on their way to another rough season. There’s no shame to losing to Jordan Lynch and company, and the Hawkeyes have reeled off four straight victories, including a 23-7 win on the road against undefeated Minnesota last week. Led by bruising tailback Mark Weisman, the country’s fourth leading rusher, Iowa is averaging over 30 points per game this season. They haven’t seen a defense like Michigan State’s yet, however, as Sparty is 3-1 thanks solely to their defense. They are giving up 13.3 points per game this season. Michigan State will have to get SOMETHING from their anemic offense in order to win at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. Look for the Spartans defense to load the box to stop Weisman and force Iowa to throw, which they haven’t had much success doing this year. Also, don’t be surprised if Michigan State gets a defensive touchdown along the way to lead them to the win. PICK: Michigan State
Bigalke: I don’t know quite why, but there is something about this Iowa team that almost feels like that Ricky Stanzi-led team of destiny that went 11-2 back in 2009. The Hawkeyes have quietly restored the ground game, and after five games they’re now ranked in the top 20 in the country in rushing yardage. That figure will be tested by a Spartan defense that yields little and takes a lot. But working in Iowa’s favor is the fact that their defense is almost as strong, allowing only 1.7 more points per game. Also working in their favor is the fact that, while Michigan State’s offense is anemic on its best days, the Hawkeyes generate on average four more points per game. Add it all together, and I think we’ll have a new challenger to Northwestern and Michigan in the race for the Legends Division. PICK: Iowa
Strobl: Fantastic job with the spread, Yahoo. The one went from having Iowa as a one point favorite to having MSU as a one point favorite to being dead even. The final line suggests that Vegas like the Spartans just a little bit; Iowa can’t even garner the requisite points for hosting the contest. Neither team has distinguished itself, although the Hawkeyes looked surprisingly good against Minnesota last week. Michigan State is the better squad here, despite a total lack of effective QB play. PICK: Michigan State
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-5.5)
Mitchell: This spread seems a little low, and I’m going to trust Vegas on this one. It opened at 4.5, and moved to 5.5, but that’s it despite the heavy betting on the Hurricanes. Georgia Tech has had a couple of extra days to prepare after losing in Blacksburg last Thursday night to Virginia Tech. Both of these defense are ranked in the Top 10 in points allowed, so expect this to be a relatively low scoring game. Georgia Tech’s triple-option attack is a tough offense to stop, and look for Vad Lee and company to control the clock with their ground game and keep the ball out of Stephen Morris and Duke Johnson’s hands as much as possible. With Miami being at home, I still like the ‘Canes to win, but expect this game to be decided by a field goal in their favor. PICK: Georgia Tech
Bigalke: This edition of ACC football is going to be an underrated battle between two of the main contenders for the Coastal Division. Georgia Tech has yet to prove it can win against an elite defense; last weekend against Virginia Tech, the Yellow Jackets managed just 273 total yards and 10 points in a loss at home. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, survived a tight battle against Florida earlier this season to stay undefeated and assert its presence in what many expected to be a two-horse ACC race before the season started. Stephen Morris is still questionable thanks to a balky ankle, but even if he’s not 100% the Hurricanes have plenty of offensive firepower with Duke Johnson and the other skill players to win by a touchdown. PICK: Miami
Strobl: If Stephen Morris could stay healthy I’d feel a lot 8 secure in taking the Hurricanes. Right now he’s expected to play, but it remains to be seen whether he can manage the full 60 minutes. All that aside, I just can’t bring myself to bet on Georgia Tech given how poorly the Jackets have played of late. They needed some lcuky breaks and a Tarheel meltdown to escape North Carolina, and Virginia Tech’s smothering defense, aside from two long pass plays, kept Vad Lee and company under wraps. It should be close, but I’m leaning toward Miami by a TD. PICK: Miami
Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9)
Mitchell: Having Dri Archer back is big for Kent State’s offense, but frankly the Golden Flashes haven’t looked like a very good team this year. They were blown out three weeks in a row by Bowling Green, LSU, and Penn State before rebounding to defeat Western Michigan last week. Northern Illinois, on the other hand, looks to be a serious contender to make it back to a BCS bowl for a second year in a row after sweeping their Big Ten slate last week by pounding Purdue to go along with their season opening win over Iowa on the road. Jordan Lynch is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, and he leads the Huskies in both passing and rushing. Lynch has 1308 total yards and 13 touchdowns this season. I think Northern Illinois continues rolling this weekend and beats Kent State by at least two touchdowns. PICK: Northern Illinois
Bigalke: Before last weekend, NIU looked incapable of making any serious case for a BCS berth in 2013. They had been winning, but they had not seriously stuck the knife into an opponent and twisted. Their trip to West Lafayette changed that perception, as the Huskies walloped Purdue on its home field and showed why they are still the team to beat in the MAC. The last time these two teams met, it was essentially a play-in game for a chance at busting the BCS. This year’s Kent State team, though, has struggled since losing Darrell Hazell to the Purdue coaching position and dealing with injuries to do-everything dynamo Dri Archer. Archer might be back, but even were he to be at 130% his return wouldn’t be enough to thwart NIU’s ambitions. PICK: Northern Illinois
Strobl: Like last season, NIU has to face Darrell Hazell and Kent State in 2013. Unlike last year, they’ll do it in separate games. Hazell couldn’t keep up with the Huskies as his new Purdue team coughed up 55 points. Kent State may well suffer a similar fate. This year’s Flashes aren’t quite as good as what we saw in 2012, and even that team couldn’t get past NIU. Homefield advantage might help a little, but nine points is doable for Jordan Lynch and company. PICK: Northern Illinois
Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers (+2.5)
Mitchell: Auburn is the trendy pick in this game as everyone is down on Ole Miss following their shutout loss in Tuscaloosa to top-ranked Alabama. Then again, that was a dominating defensive display by the Crimson Tide and Auburn isn’t on that same level. I also find it hard to believe that the Rebels struggle so mightily on offense for a second week in a row. The Tigers are at home, however, and have had an extra week to prepare after losing by two touchdowns to LSU. This is also Ole Miss’ fourth road game in their first five games, and their last one until the last game of the regular season in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. Look for a bounce back game from Bo Wallace, Jeff Scott, Donte Moncrief, Laquon Treadwell, and the rest of the Rebels’ offense. I think this will be a relatively high scoring game, and Ole Miss is simply the more talented team and they should prevail on the Plains. PICK: Ole Miss
Bigalke: They’ll be playing the other team from the Yellowhammer State, so Ole Miss should have no time returning to some level of offensive decency. Gus Malzahn has done a great job this season rejuvenating an Auburn team that had stumbled into the precipice in Gene Chizik’s last few seasons after the 2010 BCS title. But defensively the Tigers still need some work, which will be all too readily apparent at Jordan-Hare against the Rebels. PICK: Ole Miss
Strobl: With a line under three points this amounts to a pick ’em in Auburn. The Tigers have enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign under Gus Malzahn, even managing to keep things respectable against LSU. But the fact remains that this team has a lot of weaknesses, and the defense is likely to have trouble handling Mississippi’s attack. Saying that feels a little off given the gose egg that the Rebels posted against Alabama, but that game featured a whole different level of talent. PICK: Ole Miss
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