Last week’s picks provided a tighter race than at any other point yet this season. That’s not to say it was necessarily a good week picking against the spread, merely that we all finished closer to one another than we have in any of the previous three weeks.
The fourth week finished off the first month of the football season and positioned us closely heading into October. Here’s how each of us fared:
- Matt Strobl: 5-5
- Zach Bigalke: 4-6
- John Mitchell: 4-6
Matt led the group last week, finishing .500. Both John and I had losing records in a tough week of prognostication. But we’ll shake it off and dive back in to give it another go this week…
South Carolina Gamecocks @ UCF Knights (+7)
Mitchell: This game has trouble written all over it for South Carolina. The betting public has been rushing to place wagers on the Gamecocks after the seemingly small seven point line was initially released. Even with the overwhelming majority betting South Carolina, the line hasn’t budged. There are several factors working against the Gamecocks here. One, is it is a road game with an early kick in an unfamiliar environment. Two, is that South Carolina hasn’t looked nearly as good this season as many thought coming in. They’ve looked sluggish in both of their wins over North Carolina and Vanderbilt, and lost their only road game to Georgia. And finally, Central Florida is a very good football team, who has had a week off to prepare after an impressive win in Happy Valley over Penn State. Blake Bortles, the Knights’ junior quarterback, has been one of the best in the nation to this point, and he will give a shaky South Carolina secondary all they can handle all afternoon long. I do think South Carolina will find a way to win, but don’t be surprised if it’s by less than a touchdown. PICK: UCF
Bigalke: Will Jadeveon Clowney actually be able to do anything this week for the Gamecocks? The preseason Heisman contender has just two sacks, three tackles for loss and ten total tackles. Sooner or later, he’s going to have to have a monster game if he wants to keep the hype working in his favor lest he fall in the draft. Working against South Carolina is the fact that they are about to see a quarterback in Blake Bortles who is ranked just behind another QB in passing efficiency — Georgia’s Aaron Murray — who has already provided a blueprint for destroying Clowney and the ‘Cocks. I’ll be more surprised if the Knights don’t win in Orlando than if they do “upset” South Carolina. PICK: UCF
Strobl: I picked against the Golden Knights when they traveled to State College to take on Penn State. My reward was watching them manhandle the Nittany Lions, easily covering the spread and outplaying their Big Ten foe by more than the final margin suggested. Granted, South Carolina is a lot better than Penn State, but I learned my lesson regarding UCF. This is a team that warrants attention and won’t be dismissed without a fight. The Gamecocks should win, but the spread is just large enough for me to rectify my previous mistake. I think UCF can keep this close. PICK: UCF
LSU Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs (-3)
Mitchell: This game is a toss-up, and Vegas agrees as they give the home team, Georgia, the obligatory three points and nothing more. It’s always hard to pick against the ‘Dawgs in Athens, but this LSU team could very well be the class of the SEC by season’s end. Their offense has taken a major step forward thanks to the maturation of senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger, and the return of running back Jeremy Hill from suspension. Hill ran all over Auburn last Saturday in Baton Rouge to lead the Bayou Bengals to victory. Georgia’s defense has been less than impressive so far this season, giving up nearly 30 points per game in three contests. Georgia’s offense is just as balanced as LSU’s led by Aaron Murray at quarterback and the duo of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall in the backfield. The question mark is on the offensive line, however, as the Bulldogs have struggled to protect Murray to this point, and that has LSU’s ferocious defensive front salivating. LSU’s tandem of sophomore corners, Jalen Collins and Jalen Mills, are one of the best duos in the nation, and they will blanket Georgia’s receivers and give the front seven more than enough time to put the heat on Murray. This game will be close, but I have more faith in the Tigers at this point in the season. PICK: LSU
Bigalke: Look, I get that LSU looks good this year. The Tigers have actually made some strides on offense after years of looking foolish at best on that side of the ball. Zach Mettenberger isn’t merely a disgrace to my first name anymore, and they’re just as productive with a felon in the backfield as they were with a platoon. But people seem awful quick to write off the Bulldogs, especially given the fact that this game is played between the hedges. I wrote Mark Richt’s team off when South Carolina came to Athens, and the stomped the Gamecocks by 11. As good as LSU has been this year, after all, they’ve done it against a weakened TCU squad, mismatched UAB and Kent State teams, and at home over Auburn. Georgia has looked far more impressive in my mind, both in the quality of competition and the results yielded. PICK: Georgia
Strobl: Over the years I have always hated picking Georgia games. The Bulldogs have a headache-inducing ability to look like world-beaters in one moment and bumbling fools the next. QB Aaron Murray is talented but mistake-prone. The defense has the nasty habit of giving up points and yardage in chunks, turning too many matchups into shootouts. In the SEC that type of unpredictable play can be deadly. LSU isn’t flashy. And this yea’rs edition isn’t getting the attention paid to some other recent Tigers teams. But the Bayou Bengals do a lot of things well, and Zach Mettenberger has become much less of a liability under center. I like tailback Jeremy Hill, I like the LSU defense, and I like their chances of escaping with a win. PICK: LSU
Ole Miss Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-14)
Mitchell: This Alabama team is starting to remind me of the 2010 version of the Crimson Tide. You know, the team that followed Alabama’s first national championship of the Saban era, and entered the season a unanimous preseason No. 1 with a wealth of expectations. That team, much like this team, certainly had the talent to win a national championship, but lacked leadership and discipline, along with having a young, inexperienced secondary and falling victim to complacency. Alabama does have one very impressive win on their resume, as they went to College Station and knocked off Johnny Manziel and company. But, in their other two games against Virginia Tech and Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide has looked stagnant. It’s easy to write it off as them “playing down to their competition,” but that’s certainly not a hallmark of Nick Saban, and doing that will eventually get you beat if you don’t bring your best every single Saturday. This game has the feel of another Alabama/South Carolina circa 2010, although I do not think the Rebels are good enough to topple the Crimson Tide just yet. Even with the possibility of Alabama starting a freshman at corner opposite Deion Belue against the Rebels’ deep and talented wide receiver corps, Alabama should still be able to find a way to win in Bryant-Denny. But I think it’ll be by less than two touchdowns and serve as a wake up call for this team. PICK: Ole Miss
Bigalke: The Process hasn’t been working as seamlessly as usual this season, and even when they were rolling each of the past two seasons they’ve lost a game. This very well could be that game. The Rebels come to Tuscaloosa with an offense that has been known to give Nick Saban fits. They have a couple of big receivers in Laquon Treadwell and Donte Moncrief that can exploit a less-than-stellar Tide secondary. Once again, just like their trip to Kyle Field, Bama is going to have to win a shootout if they want to stay undefeated. Personally I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if the Rebels pull off the upset outright, but at the very least Ole Miss is going to make Saban sweat as it keeps this one closer than two touchdowns right to the bitter end. PICK: Ole Miss
Strobl: The Alabama defense struggled badly in College Station two weeks ago. Last week, the team looked sluggish against Colorado State. Now, as SEC play resumes against a ranked opponent, the Tide need to refocus and start driving, in earnest, toward a threepeat. Mississippi isn’t among the league’s elite; in fact, ‘Bama doesn’t face another true test until LSU on November 9th. However, the Rebels are good enough to create problems for the Tide. What I’m looking for here is a statement game from Alabama on both sides of the ball, proof that the Tide can roll away from a quality opponent. PICK: Alabama
Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-9.5)
Mitchell: Arizona has feasted on cupcakes in their first three games, so while they have won by impressive margins, it’s hard to get a read on how good this team actually is. Washington, on the other hand, has looked damn impressive on their way to a 3-0 start. The Huskies have two impressive wins on their resume. They blasted Boise State 38-6 at home, and then topped Illinois by ten on the road. Arizona has been rather one dimensional on offense this season, and they’ll have to get a passing game going if they want to put up points on this impressive Huskies defense. We’ll see a heavy dose of Ka’Deem Carey for the Wildcats, but Washington will stack the box to stop him and force Arizona to pass, which they haven’t been able to do successfully very much this season. They rank 117th in the nation in passing offense averaging just over 108 yards per game. Washington is the more complete team at this juncture, and they should cover this spread heading into next week’s showdown with Stanford. PICK: Washington
Bigalke: Bishop Sankey versus Ka’Deem Carey. Keith Price versus B.J. Denker. Steve Sarkisian matching wits with Rich Rodriguez. At first glance this spread might seem a little high betwen two undefeated teams, but the Huskies have allowed a grand total of six points so far in their stadium and won their only road trip by 10 over the Illini in Chicago. Arizona has yet to play a BCS-level opponent — and they’ve allowed only four fewer points so far in the season. This should be the week where the Wildcats are exposed as pretenders for the Pac-12 this season, while Washington proves itself to be the real deal. PICK: Washington
Strobl: I bet against the Huskies when they welcomed Boise State to town. I bet against them when they went on the road to Champaign. Both times I was burned by Keith Price and Bishop Sankey, and I’m tired of being wrong. I really don’t know much about Arizona from its early schedule. The Wildcats haven’t beaten anyone of note, though they’ve looked good in all three games. Having to hit the road to take on a tested, high-quality opponent should yield their first loss of the year. I’m a little wary of the spread, but a ten-point victory seems reasonable for Washington. PICK: Washington
Texas A&M Aggies @ Arkansas Razorbacks (+14.5)
Mitchell: Arkansas very well should be 4-0, but they blew a 24-7 lead and lost 28-24 on the road to Rutgers last week. They allowed Scarlet Knights QB Gary Nova to throw for 346 yards against them last week, so how are they going to stop Johnny Football on Saturday? The Hogs should be able to move the ball and score some points against Texas A&M’s lackluster defense as they lean on Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams in the run game, but they won’t have an answer for A&M’s offense. The Aggies’ deep group of receivers led by Mike Evans should shred the Arkansas secondary, and Johnny Manziel will have a field day with both his arm and his legs. I think A&M wins by three scores. PICK: Texas A&M
Bigalke: How did #karma feel last week, @jenbielema? The Razorbacks threw away a victory on the road at Rutgers last week, and now they have a chance to bring that karma back to Fayetteville. When Gary Nova is beating you up for 300+ yards, you’ve got little hope of stopping Johnny Manziel. I honestly don’t care how high you set this spread, because at this point we’re about to see the collapse of Arkansas. PICK: Texas A&M
Strobl: Bret Bielema has had a bit of a rough go since jumping ship from Wisconsin to Arkansas. His Razorbacks imploded last week, falling to Rutgers on the road. Before that we saw a close call against Samford in week 2. Though only a one-loss team, the Hogs haven’t looked particularly good on either side of the ball, and now they’re about to get the Aggie Circus. The venue isn’t all that relevant here. Johnny Manziel is likely to do his thing, and at the end of the day, Arkansas probably won’t be able to score enough to hang with A&M. PICK: Texas A&M
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