The first weekend of college football turned out to be a weekend of upsets and blowouts, with one top-10 and one top-20 showdown sprinkled in among an otherwise lopsided weekend of games.
That, however, doesn’t mean that we here at The Tailgater are completely clairvoyant. Picking against the spread, as any sports fan knows, is as much guesswork as inexact science. All of us, however, managed to call on our upsets — Matt and John picking Western Kentucky in the upset over Kentucky, while I called Wyoming’s near-upset of the Cornhuskers.
After one week, Matt leads the quest for the top ranking in the Tailgater picks:
- Matt Strobl: 7-3
- John Mitchell: 6-4
- Zach Bigalke: 5-5
Anyone familiar with earlier incarnations of this column, at other websites in seasons past, know that this order looks just about right. We’ll pick in inverse order this week of our position, so I guess I’m on the clock…
Florida Gators @ Miami Hurricanes (+3)
Bigalke: Essentially it comes down to a few questions here. Do you think Miami is back as a relevant national power? In a battle of strengths, will the Gators defense be able to chomp down on a burgeoning high-power Hurricanes attack? In a battle of weaknesses, will the Florida offense be able to score points against a green Miami D? Personally I think that it would be just about right for the Canes to win by a field goal at home, making this a push in general. Given that it’s a home match, I’m counting on the potential for some Duke Johnson fireworks as he tests the Gator front seven. Muschamp’s offense showed glimmers of hope against Toledo, but the defensive test ratchets up significantly now. I’m picking the home team to win on both strengths and weaknesses, meaning they should more than cover this underdog spread. PICK: Miami
Mitchell: It will be strength versus strength when Florida and Miami meet up this weekend in their final scheduled regular season meeting. The Hurricanes bring in a powerful ground game led by Duke Johnson, who is one of the best running backs in the country. Johnson torched Florida Atlantic’s hapless defense in week one, but it will be a major step up in competition against Florida’s stingy defensive front. The Gators held a good Toledo offense to just 205 total yards in the Swamp, and they are itching to get a crack at Johnson and Miami. This figures to be a pretty good game, but I think Florida is the better team, and even on the road I’ll lay the points. PICK: Florida
Strobl: The Gators have an edge in terms of overall talent. Why, then, do I have this nagging feeling about the ‘Canes? I can’t say I learned much about either team in week 1; FAU wasn’t a test for Miami and Florida didn’t look so great against Toledo. The Gators defense played well enough, limiting the Rockets to a mere six points, but it will take more offense to get past Miami. This one will likely come down to Florida’s rushing attack, and whether it can enjoy the same type of success it had last weekend. This is arguably the biggest game in a decade for the Hurricanes, and I think they could surprise. However, Florida usually does just enough to win these types of matchups. PICK: Florida
Bowling Green Falcons @ Kent State Golden Flashes (+7)
Bigalke: With Dri Archer hobbled after injuring his left ankle on Kent State’s opening drive of the season, the Golden Flashes could be facing an uphill battle at home against one of the better defenses in the country you’ve probably been ignoring to date. Bowling Green hosted Tulsa last weekend and held the Golden Hurricane under 300 total yards of offense. Playing a conference opponent on the road should present little challenge for the Falcons, especially if that already-stout defense isn’t forced to game plan for its opponent’s best offensive weapon. While Kent State is a solid squad that likely would have busted into the BCS last season had it won the MAC championship over Northern Illinois, they’ve got a tall task trying to repeat that feat if Archer isn’t 110% healthy. PICK: Bowling Green
Mitchell: This is a tough pick, especially with the status of Kent State’s best player, Dri Archer, up in the air after he injured his ankle early in their win over Liberty. Archer is a game-changer, and his uncertain status has to be the reason for the Golden Flashes being a seven point underdog on their home field. But, it’s also because Bowling Green is a better team than most realize. They boast one of the most underrated defenses in the country. The Falcons ranked 6th in the nation in total defense last season, and returned 9 starters. They held a Tulsa team that many pegged as the best team in the Conference-USA to seven points and 273 yards of total offense. Count me as a Bowling Green believer, and I think their defense will be a nightmare for Kent State, regardless of if Archer plays or not. PICK: Bowling Green
Strobl: It isn’t 2012 anymore, and while the Golden Flashes have been putting together quality seasons of late, they’re likely to regress a bit in 2013. The loss of some key personnel, including coach Darrell Hazell, will lead to a period of transition for Kent State. Having this early season MAC matchup with BGSU won’t help matters; the Falcons thrashed Tulsa last week and look sharp to open the season. PICK: Bowling Green
Texas Longhorns @ BYU Cougars (+7)
Bigalke: Maybe I’m just wacky, but some eerie things happened last weekend and I’ve got an odd feeling we might be on path this weekend for more odd happenings. Consider, for instance, the fact that BYU lost to Virginia. Or the fact that Texas looked horrible until they looked unbeatable. It just doesn’t feel like these trends are meant to stick, and in Provo the pendulum should swing back once again. The last time the teams played in Provo two years ago, Texas managed to survive 17-16. Though David Ash is finally looking like a competent quarterback in Austin, Kyle Van Noy and the Cougars should manage to unsettle him enough to force a few bad decisions. By keeping it close defensively, BYU will beat the spread this weekend. PICK: BYU
Mitchell: Another scary Vegas spread. Texas used a big second half to blowout New Mexico State, and BYU looked less than impressive in a loss to Virginia. So, why is this a seven point spread? I really have no idea, other than the fact that the game is being played in Provo. The Cougars’ offense struggled against the Cavaliers, and they’ll go up against a strong and experienced Longhorns defense that brought back nine starters from last season. Texas QB David Ash also looks much improved, while Cougars QB Taysom Hill went 13-for-40 last week. Points could definitely be at a premium, but I like the ‘Horns to win by more than a touchdown. PICK: Texas
Strobl: At first blush, this spread begs bettors to take the Cougars. There’s no on-field justification for thinking that BYU will keep it within 27, much less 7. What do the oddsmakers know that we don’t? Despite this chicanery, there’s no way I’m taking a team that was foiled by Virginia. No disrespect to the Cavs, but Texas is in a whole different league, literally and proverbially. The ‘Horns started slow but found their stride last week against sacrificial lamb NMSU, and though BYU may not be so easy a target, a single touchdown should be a piece of cake. PICK: Texas
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Tennessee Volunteers (-13)
Bigalke: I know Tennessee looked pretty damn good against Austin Peay… but that was AUSTIN PEAY, for crying out loud. This is a huge jump up in the quality of competition, and Bobby Petrino’s Hilltoppers will be hungry to go 2-0 in SEC play this season before returning to their Sun Belt schedule. Not only is Western Kentucky a better team than one might presume based on conference affiliation, but Tennessee could also get caught looking ahead to their cross-country trip to Eugene. With the Ducks looming on the schedule, not only will Western Kentucky cover a 13-point spread but they will also threaten to upset the Volunteers altogether at Neyland Stadium. PICK: Western Kentucky
Mitchell: Bobby Petrino is looking to slay an SEC opponent for the second week in a row after taking down Kentucky last week. Regardless of his off the field transgressions, you can’t ignore his success on the field. He’s one of the best coaches in the country, and he’ll have his Hilltoppers well prepared for their trip to Knoxville. Tennessee certainly has a long way to go, but there were some positive takeaways in their opener against Austin Peay. While they didn’t amass many yards in the air, new starting quarterback Justin Worley managed the game well and threw more touchdowns (3) than incomplete passes (2). Their running game was impressive, even against an FCS opponent, as they raced to 315 yards on the ground on a 6.1 yards per carry clip. The Vols have one of the best offensive lines in the nation, and they should dominate in the trenches and be good enough to win. However, I do believe that this game will be close and Western Kentucky keeps it closer than two touchdowns. PICK: Western Kentucky
Strobl: The Hilltoppers handled Kentucky with ease, winning even more comfortably than the 35-26 margin suggests. Granted, Tennessee is quite a bit better than its SEC East counterpart, but this feels like too large a spread. It’s hard to know for sure since Tennessee hasn’t yet been tested (sorry, Austin Peay), but I like the ‘Toppers to keep this one within ten. And who knows, maybe WKU can eliminate the turnovers and handle a second consecutive SEC foe. PICK: Western Kentucky
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Georgia Bulldogs (-3)
Bigalke: Despite losing to Clemson, Georgia is favored on Saturday against the other top-ten school from South Carolina. The Gamecocks, who have defeated the Bulldogs each of the past three seasons, had a solid win against North Carolina in their season opener. Jadeveon Clowney is also likely to be determined to make a national impression against the Bulldogs, after his performance against the Tar Heels was pilloried for a lack of monster sacks and flying helmets. This season could turn ugly quickly for Mark Richt after this game, looking far more like 2011 than 2012 thanks to a tough early schedule. That defense simply isn’t ready to stop the Gamecocks, even between the hedged. PICK: South Carolina
Mitchell: This is a curious spread considering both teams’ start to the season and the fact that South Carolina demolished Georgia last season in Columbia. But, the Bulldogs are a desperate team coming off last week’s loss to Clemson. Georgia entered the season with National Championship hopes, and an 0-2 start would be an absolute disaster in Athens. This is a huge SEC East tilt on the second weekend of the season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the winner of this game end up in Atlanta in December. Georgia’s offensive line looked shaky against Clemson, and that’s bad news with Jadeveon Clowney and the Gamecocks coming into town on Saturday. Even though this curious Vegas spread has me wanting to pick the Bulldogs, I’ll stick with my gut and take South Carolina. PICK: South Carolina
Strobl: If not for a couple of Aaron Murray gaffes, the Dawgs likely would have walked out of Death Valley with a close victory. Georgia lost wideout Malcolm Mitchell for the season thanks to an ill-fated celebratory leap, and coach Mark Richt must already feel his BCS chances slipping away. This is a high-pressure matchup that’s about as close to a must-win as it gets in mid-September. On the other side of the field is an SC team that looked god but not great against the Tarheels. Will a hostile Athens environment help Clowney and company ratchet up their play? Or will it lead to a critical early-season defeat? In the end this is almost a toss-up for me, but I’m leaning… PICK: Georgia
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