Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State (-12.5)
Strobl: This is a surprisingly large spread for the first game of the year, considering the level of competition. Sure, MSU is a team in transition that, according to coach Dan Mullen, may rely on as many as “six or seven” freshmen. And yes, the Cowboys are being picked by many to win the competitive Big 12. But despite the apparent imbalance, beating a quality SEC teams by two touchdowns is no mean feat. I’m tempted to challenge Vegas on this one, and if it was in Starkville I might follow through. But I do think OSU will have a dynamic offense, and despite some defensive concerns, should be able to handle the Bulldogs in Stillwater. PICK: Oklahoma State
Mitchell: Oklahoma State is one of the favorites in the Big 12, and Mississippi State is a middling SEC team, but a 12.5 point spread feels a little bit too high for the opening weekend tilt, even with the game being played in Stillwater. The Bulldogs have a few new starters in some key positions, but they do return veteran quarterback Tyler Russell and speedy tailback LaDarius Perkins, who rushed for over 1000 yards last season. The big question mark is their secondary, where they must replace three starters including Thorpe award winner Johnathan Banks. The new defensive backs will get a baptism by fire against Oklahoma State’s explosive passing attack, regardless of if it is J.W. Walsh or Clint Chelf taking the snaps at quarterbacks. The ‘Pokes have the better team, and should win, but look for it to be around a 10-point game. PICK: Mississippi State
Bigalke: Oh, boy, is this ever a toss-up. That spread makes me hesitant to pick Oklahoma State, but the fact that Mississippi State is at best the fifth-best team in the SEC West and lost five defensive starters means that they don’t necessarily have the depth of an Alabama or LSU to seamlessly slide into the empty slots on the depth chart. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has as much offensive firepower as ever, able to torment most SEC defenses. I could easily see a two-touchdown deficit for the Bulldogs on their road trip. PICK: Oklahoma State
Alabama @ Virginia Tech (+20)
Strobl: Another big spread, this 20-point gap isn’t as crazy as it seems. Alabama is far and away the game’s best program while the Hokies have struggled in recent seasons. Even if you’re willing to discount last year’s 7-6 finish, VT hasn’t been its usual self of late; the team has suffered at least three losses in each of the last six seasons and has been generally unable to hang with quality opponents. This may not be a blowout, but the Tide by three touchdowns is reasonable, even on the road. PICK: Alabama
Mitchell: A 20-point spread is big, but we’ve seen time and time again what Nick Saban and company can do with a long time to prepare. They eviscerated Michigan in Dallas last season, and did the same to Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game with over a month to get ready. The big question mark for the Crimson Tide will be whether or not the offensive line will gel after losing three starters — first round draft picks Chance Warmack and D.J. Fluker along with three-time All American Barrett Jones. They’ll get a good early test against an experienced Hokie front seven. Even if Alabama struggles to run, look for AJ McCarron to pick apart a Virginia Tech secondary that is without its No. 1 cornerback Antone Exum. McCarron has at his disposal, the deepest and most talented group of receivers in Tide history. PICK: Alabama
Bigalke: Look, I’m all for giving the two-time defending champs the requisite respect heading into the season. But here, I must say, Vegas seems to have gone exorbitantly high on this pick. The Tide offense returns plenty of parts to drive Saban’s system to perfection, but that defense is thinner than most want to admit. I’m not about to say that Virginia Tech has the horses to hang an outright upset on Bama, but the fact that the Hokies return nine starters from a top-20 defense in 2012 means that they’ve got the potential to keep this game tighter than a three-touchdown gap. Roll Tide and all, but Beamer’s boys are going to cover the spread. PICK: Virginia Tech
Georgia @ Clemson (+1.5)
Strobl: Oh good, the Disappointment Bowl. In spite of all its success, the Clemson program is still the living embodiment of underachievement. Every year is “Clemson’s Year”, yet more often than not the Tigers fail to live up the hype. To a slightly lesser extent, the same is true of UGA. Mark Richt is forever on the edge of the hot seat as the Dawgs have struggled to distinguish themselves in the always-tough SEC East. The question is which side will start the year off strong and stave off such criticism in 2013. This amounts to a pick ’em matchup, and though it could go either way, I like Georgia to eke out a quality road win. Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins notwithstanding, the Tigers have some questions to answer on both sides of the ball. PICK: Georgia
Mitchell: These teams always seem to disappoint in these kind of games. The last time this much hype surrounded Clemson in a season opener, they were embarrassed in the Georgia Dome by Alabama in 2008. Two years ago, Georgia lost a highly anticipated season opener to Boise State in the same venue. Both of these teams have high-powered offenses, and both have question marks on defense. The Bulldogs return eight starters from last season’s 22nd ranked offense, including Aaron Murray at quarterback who enters his fourth season as the starting quarterback. Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall provide a strong 1-2 punch at running back that Clemson’s defense will have trouble with. But, they must replace eight starters defensively. Clemson has their own Heisman contender at quarterback in Tajh Boyd along with a playmaking wide receiver in Sammy Watkins. The Tigers have 7 starters back on defense, but that’s not necessarily a good thing considering they ranked 63rd in the country a year ago. In what is effectively a toss-up, I’ll take Georgia because I have a little more faith in their defense. PICK: Georgia
Bigalke: Faith in defenses is a double-edged sword. Georgia has plenty of pieces to replace on their defensive unit, and the reality is that they’re unlikely to sustain their top-25 status defensively this season. I honestly see Clemson as the favorite in the ACC this season, and their run toward a BCS berth in the final season of that institution begins with a Georgia Dome “upset” of the Bulldogs. The Dome hasn’t been kind to either team as of late, but the fact remains that Georgia’s defense is threadbare and patchwork while Dabo Swinney at least knows what he has to work with — and has had an extra offseason of coaching to help get the crew into better fighting shape. PICK: Clemson
LSU @ TCU (+4.5)
Strobl: This is a far small spread, but no less difficult to pick. In fact, this is a matchup that could easily go either way. Embattled TCU quarterback Casey Pachall is expected to be back on the field in some capacity, though he may not start. Whatever role he enjoys, he’s an offensive weapon that should draw plenty of attention from LSU’s defense. That defense should be what defines the Tigers; in recent years, LSU has had its share of offensive inconsistency, but the stop unit has managed to keep the program among football’s best. Even though Les Miles and company start out on the road, I think they manage to top the Horned Frogs. I’d prefer something in the range of three points, but I’m willing to gamble that the Bayou Bengals can manage a one-touchdown margin. PICK: LSU
Mitchell: LSU was ravished by early entrees to the NFL Draft, specifically on defense as they will trot out eight new starters on Saturday in Dallas. But, the Tigers do not rebuild; they simply reload and the cupboard in Baton Rouge isn’t exactly bare. This LSU defense has the potential to be even better than they were a year ago. Senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger made major strides in the second half of last season, and the Tigers will hope that rolls over into this season. Their ground game will make life easier on Mettenberger, even if Jeremy Hill doesn’t play. TCU has Casey Pachall back at quarterback, and even if he doesn’t play they can rely on Trevone Boykin, who gained valuable experience last season in Pachall’s absence. The big question in this game will be whether the Horned Frogs’ offensive line will be able to hold up against a ferocious LSU defensive front. Expect a defensive struggle, but LSU should get the win and cover the spread. PICK: LSU
Bigalke: LSU is another team like Georgia that has an absolutely retooled defense, and I find it especially hard to pick them in this encounter given their competition. Gary Patterson has built TCU into the type of team that can actually contend offensively in the Big 12 while being the best team defensively in every conference in which they’ve competed. Les Miles is a great coach as well, don’t get me wrong, but if you had to trust Casey Pachall or Zach Mettenberger in one game, well… which would you pick?! PICK: TCU
Boise State @ Washington (+3.5)
Strobl: A good rule of thumb in college football is never bet against Boise State. When the odds seem long, when wins seem unlikely, the Broncos, more often than not, still manage to come through. Still, this de facto rematch of last season’s Las Vegas Bowl (won by BSU, 28-26) will be no cakewalk for the underdogs in blue. Washington returns a whopping 20 starters and could put together a nice campaign in 2013. Starting off with a win over #19 Boise would be a real feather in the Huskies’ cap. Washington will have experience and the crowd on its side, but this betting line leaves just enough room for me to feel good about taking Boise and the points. PICK: Boise State
Mitchell: Matt’s exactly right when saying not to pick against Boise State, but apparently I haven’t learned by lesson even after being burned time and time again by picking against Chris Petersen’s Broncos. I’d like this spread a bit more if it was around 2.5, but Steve Sarkisian may have his best team yet in Seattle with sixteen returning starters. Senior quarterback Keith Price returns, and so do his top two receivers from a year ago. They also return 80% of their offensive line, and 1400 yard rusher Bishop Sankey. Sankey had a huge game against the Broncos in last season’s Las Vegas Bowl, and you can expect more of the same when these two meet on Saturday. The home field advantage makes me favor the Huskies more than anything, and I figure they cover the 3.5 point spread. PICK: Washington
Bigalke: You really have learned nothing over the past few years, have you, John? Sarkisian may have a veteran team (that, mind you, has so far underachieved during its time in Seattle), but that fails to recognize what Boise State has coming back. Joe Southwick has progressed during his short time replacing Kellen Moore behind center on the Smurf Turf, while Price has regressed in his time succeeding Jake Locker. I know the atmosphere will be rocking at the unveiling of the renovations at Husky Stadium, but Petersen has a penchant for pulling off big upsets in openers. The Broncos haven’t lost two straight season openers since their first two seasons at the I-A level, and they’re not about to relive those days. PICK: Boise State
NEXT PAGE: The Final Four Picks Plus Upsets of the Week
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