Here lies the race that belongs to Wise Dan. Of course, Wise Dan is not in the Breeders’ Cup Mile this year and that in itself opens this race up a bit. The Mile knows what it is like to have a gate full of invaders. The 2015 edition is not surprisingly full of them again. Let’s take a look at the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile Contenders, Picks, Betting |Keeneland.
Race: Mile (G1)
Location: Keeneland Race Course
Distance: 1 Mile
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2015
Post Time: 3:30 PM EST
TV Coverage: NBC Sports Network 1:00 – 4:00 PM EST
|1||15-1||Grand Arch||Saez||Already has a win at Keeneland on a yielding track at the October 3rd Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. Career at Keenelend is 6-3-3-0 which is nothing to shake a stick at. Lightly raced and does not have to ship. Disappointing 11th in last year's BC Mile.|
|2||30-1||Recepta||Velazquez||Winner of two in a row including the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes. Has a win earlier this year over this surface. Even with Velazquez this will be asking an awful lot and even a career best might not be enough.|
|3||3-1||Make Believe||Peslier||Shipper has a career line of 6-4-1-0 which is impressive. Winner of the Grade 1 Qatar Prix de la Foret last out and Grade 1 Prix Le Parisien three back. Lightly raced with a talented jockey. The real deal.|
|4||15-1||Mondialiste||Tudhope||Late bloomer is on a three race winning streak including the Grade 3 Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes in York and then an impressive Grade 1 score in the Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes in his last start. If he continues to step forward it is not out of the question.|
|5||8-1||Impassable||Guyon||Enters the mile with wins in four of his last five including three in a row. Those include two Grade 2 scores in the Prix de Sandringham and the Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein. Appears a notch below but with the perfect trip things could end well.|
|6||15-1||Tourist||Lezcano||13th in last year's BC Mile. A long layoff saw a return with a solid score in the More Than Ready Mile Stakes. Followed up with a close loss to Grand Arch on the yielding Keeneland Turf at the Shadwell. Appears an outsider.|
|7||12-1||Tepin||Leparoux||She had an impressive 2015 campaign to date finishing no worse than 2nd including a win in the Grade 1 Just a Game and the First Lady Stakes here at Keeneland. That being said, this is a whole different level of talent she enters the gate with. It is not probable but not impossible.|
|8||15-1||Obviously||Talamo||This is the six year olds 3rd shot at the BC Mile. However, this is the first year that he does not run into Wise Dan. Lightly raced in 2015, but with two impressive wins in the American Stakes and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. Broke poorly and finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile. A contender at his best.|
|9||7-2||Esterique||Boudot||The filly is a French invader who had herself a very nice 2015 including a Grade 1 Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot win and Grade 1 win in Deauville. Fabre has Breeders' Cup success with other invaders and this filly will be right in the mix.|
|10||15-1||Mshawish||Dettori||Globe trotter has find success since returning stateside with wins in the Ft Lauderdale Stakes and the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. However, trips to Dubai and Saratoga have not been encouraging. I will let him beat me.|
|11||12-1||Karakontie||Pasquier||Welcome to the defending BC Mile champion. At huge odds, Karakontie made the career score. Not in great form heading into the 15 BC Mile but was not on form last year either so take that as a possible omen.|
|12||6-1||Time Test||Moore||Having a very solid season until the drama that was Juddmonte International Stakes where TT finished 4th. However, a cut back to the mile in the Shadwell Joel Stakes in Newmarket yielded great results. Moore loves him and will guide him in the BC Mile. If the ground is solid you have a real factor here. If it is yielding, not as likely so watch the weather.|
2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile Contenders, Picks, Betting |Keeneland: Thoughts
This year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile is setting up to be much more open than many bettors would believe or want to admit out loud. You have previous champions at 15-1, horses with Graded Stakes win at the track in Grand Arch. A pair of other 15-1 shots in Mondialiste and Obviously, who at their best, can get the job done.
It is true that Make Believe is the real deal but do not think of this horse like you would think of an old school Wise Dan. He is talented but not a lock by any sense of the word. The same can be said for the likes of Esterique. Buckle up folks. This should be a good one for sure.
Breeders’ Cup Mile Sleeper: (1) Grand Arch M/L 15-1
2015 Breeders’ Cup Mile Contenders, Picks, Betting |Keeneland: How To Spend You Cash
Below is how I would play $20 and $50 at the 2015 Classic. Keep in mind there is an eye to value here. As always, if you have to scrounge up to find $5 or $10 for the race I would pass and just watch. Pay the bills and enjoy the day. Don’t forget, this is supposed to be fun.
|$1 Exacta Box||1 with 3 with 4 with 8|
|$1 Trifecta Key||1 with 3,4,8|
|$1 Exacta Box||1 with 3 with 4 with 8|
|$1 Trifecta||1,3 with 1,3,4,8,12|
|$.10 Superfecta||1,3,8 with 1,3,4,8,12|