There you have it, the quick overview of all nine contenders for this weekend’s Preakness Stakes. The elephant in the room is whether or not Orb is that good? Was it partially a byproduct of smoking fractions and a sloppy track? There are two camps and it is hard to truly know until after the Preakness. At even money is he worth the bet even if playing the exotics? It is tough to play a win bet on a horse that will go off in the 3-5 neighborhood.
I should probably explain that my strategy for the Preakness is much different than the Kentucky Derby. In the Kentucky Derby I find who I think is the best and back him. The monumental pools wagered ensure you will always get a price. In the Preakness I search out the best horse in the field that comes with a perceived value at the window. I also believe in a much smaller bankroll when it comes to the Preakness.
At this time in their development and given even racing conditions Orb appears to be the class of this field. Watching him, especially in his last three starts he has a stride many other contenders do not have. I focused more on the Florida Derby victory than the impressive Kentucky Derby victory because of weather conditions. I cannot put enough emphasis his stretch performance in that race. Orb has also shown different running styles that all end in victory. But, you are just not going to get a price.
Oxbow, starting out of a more inviting post position, ran a more impressive Kentucky Derby than he is given credit for. With blistering fractions in front of him he stayed on the pace only to fade near the end. Ironically near the Preakness distance. One thing you will get with Oxbow is a price, something in the 13 or 17-1 range. Departing, breaking out of the four hole, is coming off an impressive Illinois Derby victory and is pegged at 6-1 on the morning line. Looking back at the Louisiana Derby it seems be the best of the preps in which Departing finished third to Mylute and Revolutionary who both represented well in the Kentucky Derby. He will be fresher than the rest and did not battle through the slop. He will take action on Saturday and should be in the 3 or 4-1 range at post time.
Mylute had probably one of the three best moves coming home in the Kentucky Derby with Golden Soul and Orb. He was behind Orb and made a powerful run to finish fifth. Interesting horse will probably be a lower price than I would like come post time.
Two wildcards could be in the form of Goldencents and Will Take Charge. Goldencents, breaking from post two this weekend, was considered a legitimate contender until a very disappointing 17th in the Kentucky Derby. If it was the track conditions that contributed to the finish he could be a surprising runner this weekend at a decent price. Will Take Charge handled completion leading up the Derby with nice victories in the Smarty Jones and Rebel. He was a victim of the large field during the Kentucky Derby when running into a wall he could not get through after making a bold move coming home. Intriguing with value.
It seems like I rifled through a large portion of the field and laid out some quality reasons for multiple horses. If Orb has an off day there is a chance for a nice payday but that is a big if. For me to wager on the Preakness I would have to consider that as an option. Like I previously said, 3-5 will not get it done for me. I would rather use the exotics as a way to generate a quality result.
Here are my takes with an eye to value at the forefront.
If I was thinking about $25 available dollars to wager I might consider something like this:
$1 Trifecta- 4/6 with 1/4/6/7 with 1/2/4/6/7 Cost $18
$3 Win and Place on 6 Cost $6
Total investment $24
If I was thinking about $50 available dollars to wager I might consider something like this:
$1 Trifecta- 4/6/7 with 1/2/4/6/7 with 1/2/4/6/7 Cost $36
$4 Win on 6 and 7 Cost $8
$1 Exacta Box 4/6/7 Cost $6
Total investment $50
Overall this is probably Orb’s race to lose but picking him will just not give me the return I want on my investment. I would not be upset if Orb beat me this weekend because it would give something to root for at the Belmont Stakes. This is supposed to be fun, it is supposed to be enjoyable and you should treat it as such. If you are scrounging to bet then you should not be betting. If you find yourself in that type of place go seek help as it can become addicting. This weekend you can find me on my couch cheering for a few of the “off the radar” horses in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
What do you think? Leave your thoughts behind.
Who will win the 138th Preakness Stakes?
- Orb (30%, 15 Votes)
- Goldencents (14%, 7 Votes)
- Departing (14%, 7 Votes)
- Govenor Charlie (14%, 7 Votes)
- Oxbow (10%, 5 Votes)
- Will Take Charge (10%, 5 Votes)
- Titletown Five (4%, 2 Votes)
- Mylute (2%, 1 Votes)
- Itsmyluckyday (2%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 50