The Kentucky Derby Preps are really starting to ramp up and Santa Anita is always a hot track. Dortmund is back at Santa Anita looking to keep his winning streak alive. A field of nine others are stepping up to the plate for their shot at Kentucky Derby points and a share of the $400,000 purse. Let’s not waste any more time and get right into it.
Race: San Felipe Stakes (G2)
Location: Santa Anita
Distance: Mile and a sixteenth
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $400,000
Age: 3 Year Olds
Date: Saturday, March 7th 2015
Post Time: 6:00 PM ET, 3:00 PM Local
TV Coverage: Can be found on TVG (online) and HRTV
| PP | M/L | Horse | Jockey | Comments |
| 1 | 4-1 | Lord Nelson | Bejarano | Lord Nelson was impressive last out with a win at the San Vicente over smashing BC winner Texas Red. But…that race was at 7 furlongs and his form against class at distance over a mile is not the same. He is speed on the rail and will be bet but I am not expecting him to hit the board here. |
| 2 | 4-1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Smith | Here is a horse that has been off for three months after Delta Downs Jackpot score over Mr. Z. Perfect 3-for-3 lifetime and has won at the distance. He comes in rested and off sharp works. His Derby run begins Saturday and should not be overlooked. |
| 3 | 8-5 | Dortmund | Garcia | 4-for-4 lifetime and deserved the M/L favorite status. Tend to get flighty and lose interest until challenged but digs in for wins. Will face the toughest test yet but should be contender to take the 50 Derby points that go to the winner. |
| 4 | 15-1 | The Gomper | Baze | There is chatter after some good works but this is a real test for the youngster. Distant 4th to Prospect Park in AlwOC. Not impossible but at least five I would pick over him here. At best it can happen. |
| 5 | 50-1 | Kenjisstorm | Delgadillo | Yakteen might no something the world is missing but to me this is nothing more than…YAY I was in the San Felipe gate. Nothing more. |
| 6 | 4-1 | Prospect Park | Desormaux | Here is where I go on record and just might hang myself. I believe you are looking at a horse that just might end up a factor the first Saturday in May. This is the class test but the colt by Tapit was blocked last out, found a hole and exploded with a kick that resembles a top tier horse. Look out. |
| 7 | 6-1 | Bolo | Espinoza | He is going to break and GO. Not much doubt about that. Trying the dirt after two turf victories. Not impossible but not sure he can control speed here and might be a victim the final 1/16. |
| 8 | 20-1 | Pulmarack | Van Dyke | Runner-up in two stakes tries against inferior to this field. Made a nice move and should have cleared but let winner come back at wire. Will sit off speed but not likely. |
| 9 | 12-1 | Sir Samson | Talamo | 3rd last out in the San Vicente to Lord Nelson but… will be battling Bolo, Lord Nelson and Dortmund up front. With that group I do not love his chances to hang on. On a big step up there could be a shock. |
| 10 | 15-1 | Pain and Misery | Prat | Might be the price play here at the San Felipe. Stretching out from sprints and draws the outside so a bit of feeling to find the trip is needed. But…the warmup was a turf sprint (to short for him) and he lost by a neck. Likely? No but if improvement continues there would be a real shock in the making on Saturday. |
San Felipe Stakes Breakdown and Betting
The curious case of Dortmund is back to run yet again. His maturity is improving but he appears to be a curious cat who likes a target. Just look back at the Robert Lewis where he needed Firing Line there with him to kick in his next gear. When he has something to run at he fires but when he passes he seems to lose a little focus but his talent drives on. At the end of the day he is 4-for-4 lifetime and a deserving morning line favorite.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is part of the trio of 4-to-1 shots that hope to take down Dortmund. He has been off since November and is 3-for-3 lifetime. His last win was a in a stakes race. All plusses for him but…The top horse he beat was Mr. Z, who looks to be a second tier 3-year-old at this time in the season. That hurts Ocho Ocho Ocho but he has worked solid and will fire. I just like others a bit better.
I can hear the world of backlash now…”It was a N1X win and not a graded stakes,” or “It is a class jump and he will not be as good at graded stakes levels.” They would be talking about Prospect Park and I would be in disagreement. I think we might be witnessing something here. A maturing 3-year-old who just came off a dominant victory will face a class test. Sure, but which horses are not in some type of class test? When a horse can be blocked but have patience then squeeze through and explode that gets me excited. In the N1X stretch last out he faced multiple levels of adversity and attacked them all.
If he steps forward off his impressive 5 1/4 length victory, and nothing in training says he won’t, this is a horse to be reckoned with. If he continues to mature you are looking at colt that is scheduled to follow the same path San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby as California Chrome last year. Is he as good as Chrome was this time last year. We will know by Saturday night.
Below are three betting options for the race. You can take all, some or none but I wanted to give you some combinations that just make come true in the San Felipe. As always if you are struggling to raise a couple of dollars to make a bet, please don’t. Pay a bill, which is more important. Remember, this is supposed to be fun. On to my win picks, predictions, and betting strategies for the 2015 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.
Live Longshot-Bomb at a Price – Pain and Misery
| $12 investment | |
| $1 Exacta Box | 2 with 6 with 10 |
| $1 Trifecta Box | 2 with 6 with 10 |
| $25 investment | |
| $1 Exacta Box | 2 with 6 with 10 |
| $ 1 Trifecta | 6,10 with 2,3,6,10 |
| $3 Win/ Place | 6 |
| $50 investment | |
| $1 Exacta Box | 2 with 3 with 6 with 10 |
| $ 1 Trifecta | 2,6,10 with 2,3,6,10 |
| $3 Win/ Place | 6 |
| $3 Win/ Place | 10 |
| $10. Superfecta | 2,6,10 with 2,3,6,8,10 |
Leave a Reply