2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic Contenders, Odds and Picks | Santa Anita

The time has finally come, the Classic is here. The Classic is the culmination of the marquee two-day Breeders’ Cup World Championships. Santa Anita is once again the home for the global phenomenon. The Classic runs for a purse of $5 million and is considered by many to be the defining moment in international horse racing. Mucho Macho Man won the event in thrilling fashion last year but has since been retired. In fact, the Classic could be considered by some to be more wide open than ever given the number of defections for varying reasons. Unless of course you love Shared Belief. There will be more on that situation later.

Race: Classic (G1)

Location: Santa Anita Park

Distance: 1 1/4 Miles

Purse: $5,000,000

Age: 3+

Date: Saturday, November 1, 2014

Post Time: 5:35 PT

TV Coverage: NBC Sports Network 3:30 Pm EST, NBC 8 PM EST

Breakdown and Betting

Many of the top horses in the world will not be present to run the Classic making for a more interesting race than many would have predicted a few months ago. Last year’s champ, Mucho Macho Man, has been retired. The same can be said for fan favorite Game On Dude, who will spend the rest of his years at Old Friends Farm in Kentucky. Gone from racing is Will Take Charge and will enjoy life as a stud at Three Chimneys.

Palace Malice, after the starting the year on fire, has been retired after the Whitney. Interesting note there is the “situation” with Princess of Sylmar, might have prompted the move. All canoodling aside, don’t be shocked if Palace Malice does return again someday. Wicked Strong is being rested and pointed to 2015 after he clipped heels at the Jockey Gold Cup. So who is left? Have no fear, there are a couple here to still steal the spotlight and emotion of fans.

Obviously the horse of the hour, day, week, or even last few months is Shared Belief. If it was not for an injury you might be looking at Triple Crown race winner challenging for a Breeders’ Cup Classic title. But for those of us in the horse world, we know that the season is not made with the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. In fact, things were just getting started. Shared Belief is undefeated and has been impressive in each and every race. He was dominant at two in the CashCall Futurity. Then came back after injury and dominated the Los Alamitos Derby and the Pacific Classic.

I have heard folks talk about how he could only nose Fed Biz in the Awesome Again but to me that was his most impressive race. Why? Shared Belief was floated four and five wide throughout the race. He traveled the farthest distance, by far, of any horse in the race. Meanwhile, Fed Biz ran the rail the whole race. Even with all that Shared Belief still came out on top. He is the favorite and deserves it.

But is there any horse in this field that could possibly take down the 7-0 lifetime stud? At his best, Bayern is a formidable contender. He dominated the Pennsylvania Derby, on a speed biased track, while setting the track record. He was also impressive gate-to-wire in the Haskell. There are two knocks against Bayern in my opinion. First, he will not get an uncontested lead in the Classic with the likes of Moreno and others. Secondly, he tends to throw a dud and when he is off he is way off. This is as likely to be a dud as a thriller this late in the year.

If not Bayern, then who? Contrary to popular belief, California Chrome is not done. To me this is all about a jockey. Yes I know he did not fire the way many expected in the Belmont and the Pennsylvania Derby. But consider this? What is the difference between those two and the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies? He was floated clear by Victor in the Santa Anita and Kentucky Derbies but in defeat he was on the rail and he was taking dirt. Clearly he does not respond to that. Victor should be removed from his saddle for life if he does not allow him wide form an outside post. He doesn’t need to be five wide but just needs clear sailing. He might not win but if he gets the trip he is still a factor.

If you are looking for a price there is a couple to be had. V.E. Day is M/L 20-1 and that is just ridiculous to me. Yes he threw a clunker last out but it was a race where Wicked Strong unseated the rider and circumstances hurt his chances. If you have it in you to throw that race out and look back to the Curlin and Travers then you can see a possibility. He will get a pace to run at here. Will he get there? It is hard to say but there is a chance. He has a better shot against these contenders than many seem to believe.

Finally, there is Cigar Street. He is a horse that has just not been able to stay healthy. The bonus to that is that he is lightly raced for a five year old and will be flying under the radar a bit due to a lack of big race moments. He is five for his last six including the Homecoming Classic and Skip Away. He has the size and the stride to compete and the distance will not be a problem. Don’t let him shock the world on you at probably 15-1 or better.

However, all this is predicated on a misstep by Shared Belief. If it does not happen then the rest are fighting an uphill battle.

Below is how I would play $20 and $50 at the 2014 Classic. Keep in mind there is an eye to value here. As always, if you have to scrounge up to find $5 or $10 for the race I would pass and just watch. Pay the bills and enjoy the day. Don’t forget, this is supposed to be fun.

Breeders’ Cup Race Predictions