2014 Whitney Handicap Contenders, Odds and Picks |Saratoga Race Course

All eyes will be on Saratoga Race Course this weekend with a stacked set of races. The marquee race of the weekend is arguably the Grade 1 Whitney Handicap.  The Whitney is run at a 1 1/8 miles over the traditional dirt surface and all horses 3-years old and up are eligible. The $1.5 million purse makes the Whitney the richest Stakes race ever run at Saratoga, even topping the Travers. Palace Malice has been installed as the even-money favorite in a field of nine. A logical morning line since he is the leading candidate for Horse of the Year and is currently perfect in four starts in 2014. Also in the field is last year’s Travers winner, Will Take Charge, who is installed as the 4-1 second choice. Other notables in the field include Departing, Moreno, Itsmyluckyday and Golden Ticket.

Race: Whitney Handicap (G1)

Location: Saratoga Race Course

Distance: 1 1/8 miles

Purse: $1.5 million

Post Time: 5:45 PM EST

TV Coverage: NBC 5-6 PM EST

Breakdown and Betting

Almost every “expert ” you listen to this week or over the next couple of days will tell you that this is a lock for Palace Malice, that he will go 5-for-5 on the year and continue to cement himself as the Horse of the Year. Is he great? Without question but he can be beat. It would take a little luck but it can happen. Before you say I am a Palace Malice hater feel free to check my mid-season top-5 for Horse of the Year. I had Palace Malice on top.  At the end of the day, Palace Malice deserves to be even money on the M/L and will probably go off at 3-5 or lower. That is a tough price to swallow.

If I am not taking Palace Malice I must be taking Will Take Charge right? Nope, I did not pick him on top in the Stephen Foster and I am not going to bump him up in a tougher field. He will get a pace to run at, which he needs and he did get a small breather since last out but the expectation that he will go off near 5/2 scares me off him.

For me it is a shocking couple of horses, at least that is what I was told in a conversation this morning. Itsmyluckyday and Departing are two horses of great intrigue for this year’s running of the Whitney. Yes it is public knowledge that I have a thing for Departing but that has nothing to do with this one. He will give you value, probably around 7-1, and like Will Take Charge, is destined for a pace to run at. However, Departing is third off a layoff and I have an affinity for horses that come from off the pace in this configuration. Style and value are there for Departing.

Meanwhile, Itsmyluckyday is projected to fire right to the front. Moreno will probably be there as well. I LOVE the move to  Lopez. They have rattled off three in a row. Obviously I am not questioning the ability of Velazquez but it appears that the willingness and temperament of Lopez seems to suit Itsmyluckyday better. I actually expect to see Itsmyluckyday sit off Moreno until they enter the final turn. At that point, I expect Lopez to give the green light and try and put distance between himself and the likes of Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and Departing who will all be coming from various distances. He just might be good enough to hold them off and heck, he gets five pounds on Palace Malice, that never hurts.

Below is how I would play $20 and $50 at the 2014 Whitney. Keep in mind there is an eye towards value here. As always, if you have to scrounge up to find $5 or $10 for the race I would pass and just watch. Pay the bills and enjoy the day. Don’t forget, this is supposed to be fun.