The 2013 Breeder’s Cup World Championships are here again with Santa Anita Racetrack as the host venue. While the World Championships crown year ending champions at multiple distances and over multiple surfaces including the Dirt Mile.
The Dirt Mile is a race for three year olds and up which is run at 1 mile over the dirt with an$1 million purse. There are 13 entrants for the 2013 edition of the Dirt Mile. The scheduled post time for the Dirt Mile is 6:05 ET and 3:05 PT.
|1||Taptowne||15-1||Having a career year at five. Bridesmaid in three Graded Stakes races in 2013. Interesting option.|
|2||Golden Ticket||12-1||Stephen Foster runner-up might like the shorter distance of the Mile. Three 2013 wins but none in stakes races. Not impossible.|
|3||Hymn Book||15-1||On the board in all three G2 races in 2013. Has one at the G1 level. Early speed sets up for his late run.|
|4||Brujo de Olleros||8-1||Appears to be comfortable in the US now. Strong runner-up at the Kelso and appears on the up tick|
|5||Fed Biz||6-1||Four Year old seems to favor the poly as evident by a win at the G2 Pat O'Brien last out. No slouch on dirt either winning San Fernando. In the mix.|
|6||Broadway Empire||12-1||Four for six in 2013 including three stakes races. Easily handled highly touted Departing in the G3 Oklahoma Derby. In the mix at a price?|
|7||Alpha||8-1||Two-time G1 winner (Woodward in 2013 and the Travers) appears to favor a wet track. When on he is great but predicting when is challenging.|
|8||Holy Lute||20-1||On the board in all four lifetime starts with third at the Indiana Derby (G2). A bit young and not ready.|
|9||Centralintelligence||15-1||Two wins at SA but never been two turns. Overall lack luster 2013 minus Triple Bend (G1)on Poly. The dirt can be an issue.|
|10||Verazano||3-1||Six of eight lifetime including wins at the Wood (G1), Haskell (G1) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Bu when off he is really off (Derby and Travers). Scared off the biggest races?|
|11||Pants on Fire||6-1||First time out west for the millionaire. Two Graded Stakes win in 2013 (Ack Ack and Monmouth Cup). Can win over two runs and has a shot for the win.|
|12||Goldencents||4-1||Appears to like being a bridesmaid as of late (three straight runner-ups) but was impressive in G1 Santa Antia Derby victory in the spring. Interesting.|
|13AE||Easter Gift||15-1||If he runs it’s a big step up in class considering history. Unimpressive fifth in the Kelso but has three wins in 2013 with impressive numbers.|
Prediction and Betting Strategy
In case you have not read any other articles I have written I am not one to go with the chalk. I am all about finding value whenever there is a chance. A perfect example of that was the Preakness earlier this year when I backed Oxbow. Some races might mean value is 14-1 while other it might be 6-1.
It would be easy and believable to sit back and tell you that Verazano and Goldencents should be an exacta box in the Dirt Mile but that is not how I see it. How can I not back the horse that won the Santa Anita Derby earlier this year on this very track? I just do not like his apparent satisfaction with second place the last three races. Sure he could be considered primed but I just see a how resolute to beat every horse but one. With the predicted short price at post time I am not placing a win bet on him.
A better question still would be how I am not backing a horse that is six for eight lifetime? While an clear and concise argument can be made that he is conditioned for this distance there are two issues that have me avoiding a horse that will be a very short price. First is the fact that he is not proven outside if the east coast. How will he travel and acclimate? And secondly is that on his two career “misses” he missed bad. The Travers was a horrible race and makes you wonder if there is a bit of tired in the youngster. Either way at the odds he will take to the gate I will not put him on top.
But who do I like? Remember I believe is value. For me it comes down to three horses. The Fed Biz, Broadway Empire and Pants on Fire. The Fed Biz beat Goldencents last out in the Pat O’Brien, is also a So. Cal. horse and has won over two turns. Broadway Empire has won his last two stakes races including a domination of the highly touted Departing in the Oklahoma Derby and will give you a value price. Pants on Fire is on a two race winning streak including wins over fellow milers Hymn Book and Taptowne. Pedigree and two turn proof make him even more appealing. But who do I put on top? Look below to see how I would approach two different bankroll amounts.
Remember this is supposed to be fun so if the money is tight just sit back and watch some great horse racing and pay your electric bill but here is how I would play the Dirt Mile if I was wagering a $25 and $50 bankroll. Take it as some friendly advice and enjoy yourself.
|$3 WP||Broadway Empire||6|
|$1 Exacta Box||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire||Fed Biz||6|
|$1 Trifecta||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire, Fed Biz, Hymn Book||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire, Fed Biz, Hymn Book||12|
|$3 WP||Broadway Empire||6|
|$4 WP||Pants on Fire||8|
|$1 Exacta Box||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire||Fed Biz, Hymn Book||12|
|$1 Trifecta||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire, Fed Biz, Hymn Book, Goldencents||Pants on Fire, Broadway Empire, Fed Biz, Hymn Book, Goldencents||24|
Check out my Classic preview located at Breeder’s Cup Classic: Odds, Contenders-Pick To Win
Good luck folks and check back later in the week when I break down more races from the Breeder’s Cup World Championships.