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Max Scherzer
Possible Teams:
New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
He followed up a 21-3, 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 240 strikeout season with an 18-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.175 WHIP and 252 strikeout season. He also proved durability with at least 30 starts in six straight seasons. He has not been overused in his career in Detroit so arm deterioration is not as big of a factor for the 30 year old. In fact, he has averaged 104 pitches per start over his career which bodes well for the arm holding up over the length of the contract. Obviously, the arm is always a concern with pitchers but his contract is arguably a safer one than the Justin Verlander payday in Detroit. The next two pitchers will have considerably more wear and tear than Scherzer which makes him more desirable.
Many experts thought that he was foolish for turning down the reported six-year, $144 million deal with the Tigers especially when he came off a Cy Young season. I am here to say that the gamble will pay off. There are teams positioned with money to spend. Don’t be shocked if the Orioles have learned that they must have a front of the rotation starter and open up the checkbook to take the next step. While not standard, the lure of the ace just might sway them. Expect a deal in the neighborhood of six-years, $170-$180 million with a player opt out after four years.
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Buy or Sell:
Buy, based on upside and lesser long term health concerns
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