Well here we are, a few days from the running of the second leg of the Triple Crown. Nyquist, as expected and deserved is the odds on favorite to continue the quest for back-to-back Triple Crowns. Accuweather and other weather agencies are predicting high volumes of rain for the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. This could cause a sloppy or muddy track come post time for the 141st Preakness Stakes. If it rains all day, even if the track holds on, this will affect the race. The question is how much and if so, does this change any horse’s chances.
Even with the forecast, it is hard to knock him. He is eight-for-eight lifetime, has won multiple Grade 1s, and has won them on multiple tracks. The cutback in distance is not a detriment to him in any way. The only two things to look at of concern are the two week layoff and the possibility of a bad track this Saturday. However, every test has proven a success and it is hard to envision the track yielding him inept. He came into a fast pace in the Derby and pulled clear. That could very well happen again Saturday.
Exaggerator is back as the prime competition for Nyquist yet again. While he is 0-for-4 lifetime against him, he did make a big move (although about as perfect a trip as a closer will get in the Kentucky Derby) last time out. If the track goes south, it is worth noting his monster effort in the Santa Anita Derby in the bad weather. His move in the SA Derby was literally breathtaking and at Pimlico, things could shape up for that weather again. It should be noted though, that the massive run the SA Derby can also be thanks in part to Danzig Candy just collapsing on the front end after insane fractions.
The hot choice in betting at the window will undoubtedly be Stradivari. He is very lightly raced (only three starts) and has never faced stakes competition but has last two wins have been by insane margins. The scary part is that the margin went from 11+ lengths to 14+ lengths as the distance increased. If you are thinking about backing him you have to take the good with the bad. The bad was already mentioned but the good is he appears to be improving and he will be very rested come race day.
Uncle Lino is won to consider if you are looking for a stretch here outside the top three who will all be 5-1 or less come post time. With a morning line of 20-1, Uncle Lino is in here with a shot. He has competed against top talents and ran on bad track conditions in the Santa Anita Derby while handling the track well. He is coming off a career best, track record setting performance in the California Chrome Stakes where he led the field around the track. He has proven he does not “need” the lead and can sit off a pace duel. His speed figures have been on the rise and he has an extra week on the best in here. I am not calling it a lock but there is a real chance especially if others tire from two weeks and bad weather.
2016 Preakness Stakes 141 Contenders, Picks, Betting, Live Longshot – Betting Strategy
How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the 2016 Preakness Stakes.
Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Preakness Stakes based on a bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “safe bet” return for the 2016 Preakness Stakes. You will see a mix of horses and variants but all center around the three I really like. The idea is to use them in multiple ways in order to maximize a return and minimize risk. If the top-3 runners top the board then a payout will be almost impossible. Let’s finalize the 2016 Preakness Stakes 141 Contenders, Picks, Betting, Live Longshot
Sleeper With a Chance – Uncle Lino (Post 2)
Live Longshot (Bomb With a Price) –Abiding Star (Post 9)
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 5|
|$1 Trifecta Box||2 with 3 with 5|
|$4 Win / Place||2|
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 5 with 11|
|$1 Trifecta Box||2 with 3 with 5 with 11|
|$.10 Super Box||2 with 3 with 5 with 9 with 11|
|$50 investment Option 2|
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 5|
|$1 Trifecta||2,3,5 with 2,3,5,9,11|
|$5 Win / Place||2|