The Santa Anita Derby is the final prep for many in this field before the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Dortmund looks to remain perfect and head to Kentucky carrying the California flag just like California Chrome last year but a field of five others are stepping up to the plate for their shot at Kentucky Derby points and a share of the $1 million purse. Let’s not waste any more time and get right into it.
Race: Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Location: Santa Anita
Distance: Mile and a eighth
Age: 3 Year Olds
Date: Saturday, April 4th 2015
Post Time: 6:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBC Sports Network
|1||3-5||Dortmund||Garcia||What can you say here. He is now 5-for-5 off another stakes win in the San Felipe. He beat two others in this small field in that race. I am in the minority but I still worry about his propensity to need a horse to run with or at. Heavy favorite and the history warrants it.|
|2||5-1||One Lucky Dane||Bejarano||Won maiden score by over 9 lengths. Came back to struggle in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Nov. Rested until his last start, an impressive almost 10 length allowance score. But now he steps up again. Can he hold the front against Dortmund, Bolo or Prospect Park. I am not sold second off the layoff.|
|3||15-1||Cross the Line||J Hernandez||Golden Gate shipper brings the jockey with him to the SA Derby. Could not get the job done in the El Camino Real last out but in defense, he was checked and coming late. A huge forward step is required but it is not impossible.|
|4||4-1||Bolo||Smith||Looked good in three turf starts to begin his career. Switched to the dirt to battle in the San Felipe and Espinoza. Finished a solid 3rd. Second dirt start is here and HOF Smith back on the mount. There is a little Mine That Bird and Dullahan in him so it is not impossible in second 3-year-old start.|
|5||7-2||Prospect Park||Desormeaux||Ever since Desormeaux climbed on he has been a different horse. I made no mistake about how much I liked him entering the San Felipe but the concern of a small bounce based on form did cross the mind. He stretched to 1/16 and still closed hard into Dortmund. Now we go a bit farther and that will be of no concern. I think he has more than he has shown and I expect a huge race this weekend. Want to beat Dortmund, here is your guy in this field.|
|6||30-1||Bad Read Sanchez||Guiterrez||You have to LOVE the name, funny is just funny. Has not raced since a 3rd in the Best Pal in August. Has he stepped forward? Is this a desperate attempt at Derby points? Trained well and this bomb could parlay this small field into a minor award.|
Santa Anita Derby Breakdown and Betting
Let’s get it out of the way up front, Dortmund is the HEAVY favorite here and will most likely enter the starting gate at 1-5 or worse. He is perfect in his career and the top two rivals in the Santa Anita Derby starting gate are horses he beat last time out. Is he impossible to beat? Heavens no, but it will not be easy. The one thing going for the field is that Dortmund wants to see his rivals and if he is snuck up on things could get interesting.
I have spoken a few times about my strange love for Prospect Park. The San Felipe runner-up finish to Dortmund only confirmed by beliefs. He had to steer out in the stretch and was closing on Dortmund who just cleared Bolo. Prospect Park had plenty in the tank and who know what another 1/16 of a mile could have changed. It could be all for not but Ken knows how to ride and a small field should limit the traffic he needs to negotiate.
Bolo showed himself well in his first career start and hung for the majority of the race but adding distance will not help his chances. What do you make of Bad Read Sanchez, a 30-1 shot who has been off for eight months and makes his three-year-old debut in a Grade 1? He smells like a guy that catches the board at long odds to make the exacta palatable for the bettors.
Below are some betting options for the race. You can take all, some or none but I wanted to give you some combinations that just make come true when making your 2015 Santa Anita Derby picks. Remember the morning line odds for the Santa Anita Derby are suggestions/opinions and frankly nothing more. As always if you are struggling to raise a couple of dollars to make a bet, please don’t. Pay a bill, which is more important. Remember, this is supposed to be fun. On to my win picks, predictions, and betting strategies for the 2015 Santa Anita Derby.
|$1 Exacta Box||1 with 5 with 6|
|$1 Trifecta Box||1 with 5 with 6|
|$1 Exacta Box||1 with 5 with 6|
|$ 1 Trifecta||1,5 with 1,4,5,6|
|$3 Win/ Place||5|