The Florida Derby is likely the final prep for many in this field before the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Many are ready to run in the Florida sun and cement the chances at a RU for the Roses on the first Saturday in May. Each trainer, jockey, or ownership group has a reason for “their” horse in the 2016 Florida Derby field but some will have better chances than others.
Race: Florida Derby (G1)
Distance: Mile and a eighth
Age: 3 Year Olds
Date: Saturday, April 2nd 2016
Post Time: 6:48 PM EST
TV Coverage: Can be found on TVG (online) and HRTV
The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback). Years ago I provided very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. However, as many claimed the reading was dry and over the top as such I began the change. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it.
If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy. The track record is solid since I tend to stick with the big races each year. You will not find a breakdown of a claiming race next Sunday but if you want the major preps, Triple Crown series, Travers, and more than this is the place for you.
2016 G1 Florida Derby Contenders, Picks, Betting | Gulfstream – Breakdown and Betting
|1||30/1||Sawyers Mickey||S Spieth||Everyone can find an angle anywhere but when you are a lifetime 0-for-7 against lesser it is hard to even find a reason even as a three-year-old.|
|2||15/1||Fellowship||J Lezcano||Distant third choice who finished third behind Mohaymen in the Holy Bull and FOY. He has been solid in defeat but clearly a notch below. Step ups can happen but it is likely to be a battle for third place KD points here.|
|3||20/1||Majesto||J Castellano||Broke maiden on the 27th of Feb over this track going a 1 1/16 and is looking to take a huge step forward. Hard to find a way especially considering the two monsters in the race.|
|4||6/5||Nyquist||M Gutierrez||What hasn't already been said. 6-0 lifetime including three G1s, one of which was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Chance to win $1 million bonus but trainer said he was coming here anyway due to the five week break from the KD. Basically a co-favorite.|
|5||50/1||Copingaway||M Vasquez||Already 10 starts since August 20th and has not won since breaking maiden going 6 furlongs over this track in Sept. A dud in only stakes entry albeit over turf.|
|6||30/1||Chovanes||E Zayas||Another one time winner against much less here at GP. Maiden claiming win was a much improved performance over previous but still a wide gap to the top of this one.|
|7||20/1||Takeittotheedge||T Gaffalione||Here is the interesting one outside of the top two. Very impressive front-running debut last out winning by almost eight lengths. Clearly a major step up for a second start but with Unbridled in the blood this could be the making of another special one. Jury is out but I am high on this one.|
|8||30/1||Fashionable Freddy||N Juarez||Could not have been more unimpressive in allowance start last out. Tried to make a move and went flat. Baring a miracle there is nothing of note here. Even Tiznow can't hit a home run with all of them.|
|9||Even||Mohaymen||J Alvarado||Morning line favorite but in essence the co-favorite with Nyquist. An undefeated 5-0 to start the career including impressive Remsen, Holy Bull and FOY wins. Looking for a knock in the armor and you have to settle for no G1 wins but that might end with the FD.|
|10||30/1||Isofass||J Leparoux||Another one time winner in the Florida Derby looking to sneak into third and grab those KD points. There is room for improvement and Leparoux is on but would be epic if there was a way to crack the top two here.|
The 2016 Florida Derby is basically a two horse race with one possible minor exception. The top two are without a doubt Mohaymen and Nyquist. Both trainers would rather stall the meeting until the first Saturday in May but it is not meant to be.
Both trainers and connections really want the five-week break between the Grade 1 prep and the Kentucky Derby. To get that it means the Florida Derby and a collision that we do not often get so early in the three-year-old season.
Nyquist is proven and proven again with multiple Grade 1 wins including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also has the chance to capture a $1 million bonus that was offered by Fasig-Tipton to any horse that graduated Gulfstream sales and returned to win the Florida Derby. He made his first start since the BC at the San Vicente Stakes where he easily shook off Exaggerator over seven furlongs. A good primer for sure heading into the Florida Derby.
Meanwhile, Mohaymen has been equally dominant dispatching all comers since he entered the track. In fact, in the Fountain of Youth he went up against two other unbeaten and disposed of them with relative ease. It can be fairly simple to expect that Mohaymen will probably sit outside and just off the pace in a stalking position that will suit him well. We will have to see who is the best coming down the stretch at the 2016 Florida Derby. Mohaymen has the home court advantage.
If you are looking for a wildcard in here you should point to Takeittotheedge. Only one lifetime start but the kin to Unbridled won the opener by almost eight lengths. He could become another trying to win the Kentucky Derby on his third lifetime start. In the near term, he will be asked to step up bigtime against the top two but who knows, maybe he has what it takes despite the experience.
Longshot / Sleeper With a Chance – Takeittotheedge
2016 G1 Florida Derby Contenders, Picks, Betting | Gulfstream – The Bets
How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the 2016 Florida Derby.
Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Florida Derby based on bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “safe bet” return for the 2016 G1 Florida Derby Contenders, Picks, Betting | Gulfstream
|$1 Exacta Box||4 with 7 with 9|
|$1 Trifecta Box||4 with 7 with 9|
|$4 Win / Place||7|
|$2 Exacta Box||4 with 7 with 9|
|$1 Trifecta||4,7,9 with 4,6,7,9|
|$20 left for pick four using 4,9|