It is winter time and what better place for horse racing than California, more specifically Santa Anita. With the meet beginning, Race 6 will be the LaBrea Stakes where the fillies will run for a purse of $300,000 on dirt. Below is a breakdown of each horse in the field, their odds, post positions, jockeys and anything else you might need to know. Betting strategies, based on bankroll, will be provided to try and help you solve the puzzle that is the 2014 LaBrea Stakes. If you are looking for the other Grade 1 at Santa Anita, you can read the 2014 Malibu Stakes (G1) Contenders, Odds, and Picks.
Race: LaBrea Stakes (G1)
Location: Santa Anita Park
Distance: 7 Furlongs
Date: Friday, December 26, 2014
Post Time: 5:47 ET
TV Coverage: Can be found on TVG (online) and HRTV
|1||2-1||Taris||Bejarano||Very impressive win after a long layoff in the Ravens Run at Keenland where she trounced opponents by nine lengths. Also won the Wide Country at Laurel. Catch me if you can for the M/L favorite.|
|2||30-1||Uzziel||T Baze||Plenty of speed in her but not sure there is a level in her to compete with these. Winner of the Beverly Lewis and Santa Paula has not faired well in graded stakes competition. Very unlikely.|
|3||6-1||Thank You Marylou||Rosario||Won the G3 Dogwood at Churchill. Seems to have an affinity for 3rd place finishes in G1 competition including last out in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint. Distant 3rd to Taris in the Ravens Run. Adds Rosario. Not impossible depending on pace.|
|4||9-2||Awesome Baby||Smith||3 for 3 in 2014 but coming off a very long layoff. Prior to the break she was decisive in those three wins. She was not headed at any point and won the Santa Ynez by 6 1/2 and Sunland Park Oaks last out by 4 1/4. If she fires she is formidable.|
|5||30-1||Ramona's Wildcat||Van Dyke||Nothing much to report here. She is not a bad filly but outclassed by almost all in this field. A win here would be an absolute shock.|
|6||12-1||More Complexity||Guitierrez||Winner last out in the Betty Grable over Del Mar's synthetic surface at the distance. But this is dirt, that was state-breds and this is a whole new class. Not impossible but many others to look to first.|
|7||4-1||Stonetastic||Lopez||4th last out in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint but winner two back in the Prioress at Saratoga by 8 1/2. Like many here she will want the lead and the question will be if she can make it. Like others a bit more here.|
|8||15-1||Amaranth||Carr||Courageous winner in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes on dirt at 6 1/2 furlongs here at SA. No doubt this is a step up for the filly but catching a piece here could be an option.|
|9||8-1||Sam's Sister||Trujillo||Tough spot to enter the world of stakes competition against these. 3 for 4 lifetime with an allowance win here over the track. Talented but probably needs this one to see what the stakes world offers. But not without a shot.|
|10||4-1||Jojo Warrior||Garcia||Talented filly enters off a loss in the Cotillion but that race was a loss to Untappable and Sweat Reason. Either of those are superior to this field in my opinion. Prior to that she won the Torrey Pines and Summertime Oaks. She has the ability to sit just off the pace duel and that could be enough to push to the top at the wire. Contender.|
LaBrea Stakes Breakdown and Betting
Welcome to probably the fastest race on the Santa Anita opening day card. There is a ton of speed in this race, I mean a ton. Many of these fillies know how to floor it, go to the lead and then win going away. Obviously some will sit off the pace this time and others will rate. The magic eight ball here is figuring out who and how.
With so much talent in this race it can be hard to decipher who deserves a greater stake of your time. An argument can be made for many in this field but when breaking everything down I came to a work off list of four horses. The four in question for me, at varying levels, are Taris, Thank You Marylou, Awesome Baby, and Jojo Warrior.
There is no doubt that Taris annihilated the field in her last start. Her performance in the Ravens Run was spectacular. She was much the best that day and had run left after the wire. She is finally getting the credit she deserves but the question is whether or not she can do the same with the level of talent and speed here.
Thank You Marylou finished a distant but closing third in the Ravens Run behind Taris. She has also competed at the highest level in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint where she came home third. A point here with Thank You Marylou is that she can come from slightly off the pace, something that could be huge during this race, and she adds the knowledge of Joel Rosario for the run. She is more live than the bettors will give her credit for.
Awesome Baby can just flat out go. Like others she brings impressive victories with her. If it was not for the long layoff I believe she would have been the M/L favorite over Taris. That is great news for the bettors. If you think the layoff will not hurt her and that she will break well then you are in great shape and will probably see in the range of 5-1 to 7-1 which would be a great price for such talent.
At the end of the day I had to settle on one that I like the best. After all the numbers, replays and reviews it became apparent to me that Jojo Warrior is what I wanted on top. It might seem odd that I took the horse coming off a loss over others but there is reason here. In her loss at the Cotillion she fell to Untappable, who should be three-year old of the year, and Sweet Reason. In reality, both are superior, in my mind, to this field. She took care of business the previous two and she has the ability to rate the assuredly hot pace of the LaBrea Stakes.
This is a race where box wager should and will come into play. Make good use of them and you can be rewarded as betting could be spread amongst four or five fillies here.
Below is how I would play $20 and $50 at the 2014 Mile. Keep in mind there is an eye to value here. As always, if you have to scrounge up to find $5 or $10 for the race I would pass and just watch. Pay the bills and enjoy the day. Don’t forget, this is supposed to be fun.
|$1 Exacta Box||3 with 4 with 10|
|$1 Trifecta Box||3 with 4 with 10|
|$2 Exacta Box||3 with 4 with 10|
|$1 Trifecta||3,4,10 with 1,3,4,10|
|$.10 Superfecta||4,10 with 1,3,4, 8,10|