Jerome Stakes Predictions and Free Picks; Road to the 14 Kentucky Derby

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Image Courtesy of NYRA/Adam Coglianese

Image Courtesy of NYRA/Adam Coglianese

The Jerome Stakes is the first graded stakes race of the year in New York. The Grade 2 Jerome is only open to 3-year olds and is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Jerome will award needed points to the top four finishers at a rate of 10 points for first, four for second, two for third and the fourth place finisher will earn one point. This year’s edition will be held this weekend at Aqueduct and will cover one mile and 70 yards on the dirt. Eight horses are confirmed for this year’s edition so let’s take a look at them

Jerome Field Breakdown


1Noble Moon6-5I. OrtizThird last time out at the G2 Nashua Stakes in November. Wants to set the pace
2Scotland7-2D. CohenSecond last out in MSW at Aqueduct and second by a head at Laurel in only other start. Did have a bullet 5F workout recently
3Lawmaker8-1J. OrtizSecond career start and comes off a debut victory at Laurel making up 3F in the stretch
4Pin and Win30-1A. CastellanoUninspiring fourth last out at the Don Rickles over this track
5Matuszak15-1R. MaraghSixth last out in the G2 Remsen, Needs a big improvement
6Mental Iceberg20-1A. ArroyoEighth last out in the G2 Remsen. Baring a shocker I do not see it.
7Classic Giacnroll5-1A. SolisWas riding a two race winning streak before falling in first stakes competion in the Marylander Stakes
8Master Lightning6-1C. VelasquezReturns to grades stakes off an option claiming victory over this track. Previously finished ninth in the Nashua and fifth in Remsen


It appears to be a fairly week field for this year’s edition. The odds makers are pretty confident in Noble Moon putting him as the clear favorite at 6-5. The maiden, Scotland, is the second choice and is winless in a short career. The third choice, Classic Giacnroll, failed in his first stakes competition but did win two in a row prior.

In my opinion there is only two way to look at the 2014 edition of the Jerome Stakes. The first is to just watch the running of the Jerome and look for signs that a Kentucky Derby Contender is inside one of them. The other is to ignore Noble Moon (1) as the 6-5 morning line favorite. Why? I do not see any horse in this field worthy of 6-5 billing especially given that he will probably hit the gate at 3-2.

For me it comes down to two horses with value. When I speak of value, and I am asked this a lot, it is not the same for each and every race. I do not believe in blanket value. In some races the value might be at 14-1 while others value might be 4-1 based on how I believe they will finish. I see two horses with real value in this year’s edition of the Jerome.

Classic Giacnroll (7) is owned and trained by Lisa Guerrero and is as live in this field as any. He missed in his stakes debut but that was a muddy track where he still finished third. He was the winner of two straight prior to the miss in the Marylander. I am also a fan of Alex Solis on a young mount. I would expect to see in the neighborhood of 4-1 at the gate for a solid play.

Meanwhile, Lawmaker (3) is a question mark making his second career start after breaking his maiden in a debut at Laurel. He did put up as impressive a performance in his debut as any in this field. Lawmaker was able to get up for a one length victory after rallying in the stretch. If you look at that race the move was more impressive than many give him credit for. He is fresh and raw but there could be a very big step forward for the youngster at the Jerome. If you get 6-1 or better than he is worth the play.

If you are the type of bettor who likes the exotics you might want to think about a $2 Exacta box and a $1 Trifecta.

Value Betting The Jerome Stakes


$2 Exacta Box$1 Trifecta
Lawmaker (3)Lawmaker (3), Classic Giacnroll (7)
Classic Giacnroll (7)With
Scotland (2)Lawmaker (3), Classic Giacnroll (7), Scotland (2), Master Ligtning (8)


Who will win the 2014 Jerome Stakes?

  • Lawnmaker (67%, 2 Votes)
  • Scotland (33%, 1 Votes)
  • Noble Moon (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Classic Giacnroll (0%, 0 Votes)
  • Other (Please Leave Comment) (0%, 0 Votes)

Total Voters: 3

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  • Adam Solowiei

    I just do not have the faith in Noble Moon at the price. I worry about the last 70 and I do believe a horse like Pin and Win will push him (without intention of being there at the end) opening the door for Lawmaker and Classic Giacnroll (who just might employ a different race tactic this weekend) Thanks for the comment.

  • terry

    nobel moon controling speed master lighting held tough lawmaker was impressive exocits could pay alright with nobel moon winning