MLB American League Central 2013 Predictions (Part 6)

February 8, 2013 - AL Central, American League, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, MLB, MLB Featured, MLB Previews, MLB Teams - 11 comments

MLB American League Central 2013 Predictions (Part 6), 3.3 out of 5 based on 7 ratings

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Welcome to Part 6 of my 2013 MLB forecast. I just finished forecasting the National League East, National League Central and the National League West. I recently broke down the logical finish in the American League West. Now it is time to move on and I present my 2013 predictions for the American League Central.

Heading into 2012 there were very high hopes for the Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera led Tigers with the addition of Prince Fielder and other parts many “experts” had them pegged for a World Series title. The rest of the teams in the Central believed, as all do, they had a shot to win the division and make a run at the playoffs. Unfortunately nobody from the Central got exactly what they deserved. The Tigers took a while to get things in gear (although making it to the World Series is hardly a bad year) and the White Sox, while a great story for most of the year, could not hang on down the stretch and succumbed to the Tigers challenge. The Indians, Royals and Twins showed there was still work to do in these three baseball cities. But what will 2013 bring. Let’s take an early look into the crystal ball.

2012 AL Central Standings

Detroit Tigers	88	74	.543	-
Chicago White Sox	85	77	.525	3.0
Kansas City Royals	72	90	.444	16.0
Cleveland Indians	68	94	.420	25.0
Minnesota Twins	66	96	.407	27.0

For those that do not want to read the whole article, as I know it is long and detailed I present the following table of my predicted 2013 American League Central Standings.

2013 AL Central Predicted Standings

Detroit Tigers	91	71	.562	-
Chicago White Sox	83	79	.512	8.0
Kansas City Royals	75	87	.462	16.0
Minnesota Twins	70	92	.432	21.0
Cleveland Indians	65	97	.401	26.0

The Analysis:

Up Next: Detroit Tigers Breakdown

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Anonymous

Really you think Cleveland will be that bad. Have you seen the improvements made with the additions of Swisher and Bourn. The Indians didn’t go out and resign Hafner and Sizemore. In my opinion the Indians are contenders for the division if not wildcard

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- Adam Solowiei
  
  Thanks for the comment. I appreciate you taking the time to write about your thoughts. Unlike you I do not have a lot of faith in the Indians. yes they added Swisher. (Bourn signing today will be part of the “End of Spring Training Update”) This team cannot pitch and they do not have an offense that can carry a team. Jimenez has forgotten how to pitch since coming to the AL. Masterson is not good. There are no lefties in the rotation. Francona is a good manager but not a miracle worker. I looked at this numerous ways and I cannot see this team, baring a pitching miracle, being a contender for a division title (I can’t see them challenging Detroit) or wildcard. NY, Tampa, LA, Texas, Baltimore, Toronto, and Oakland are all better constructed teams than Cleveland. It is just my opinion and there is a season to be played but the numbers don’t give me much faith.
  
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  - stephen benner
    
    if you actually watched the team, the signing of swisher and bourn adds so much needed energy that theres no way they will finish with a WORSE record than last year. this is a team in april thru early june were ahead of the tigers, and beating them i may add with sweeps. then they struggled, why? no energy. they have the best bullpen in the majors, and no thats not debatable, look at the numbers. yes, we traded sipp, but get trevor bauer! and not to mention, they have arguably, one of the best managers now in the makors to go along with one of the top farm systems. kipnis, brantley, swish, bourn, santana, cabera, stubbs all will be a dominant lineup. start wise outside of bauer(this top prospect) ubaldo will have a productive year i believe, along with materson and mccalister. this team though will be stealing bases and scoring runs, and what team had that in the past..the indians 13 years ago that were regularly contenders. the tigers have a WEAK farm system..but will be powerhouses for awhile(obviously) and then the royals are getting better and better every year
    
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    - Adam Solowiei
      
      Stephen,
      
      Thanks for the post and it is always great to hear from loyal and emphatic fans of their teams. I am not a Cleveland fan or a “hater” of the organization. I will do my best to clearly explain where we disagree. You stated that “ubaldo will have a productive year i believe, along with materson and mccalister.” Why, short of a gut feeling? Ubaldo has been horrid since the transition to the AL. He is carrying an ERA comfortably over 5.00 and a WHIP over 1.50 since coming to the Indians. Masterson has started over 90 games in his career (a more than reasonable sample) and has an ERA north of 4.00 and a sub .500 pitcher. McAllister can get better, as he is young, but he isn’t the second coming yet. If the rotation makes a living getting shelled the quality of the bullpens is nullified. And let’s face it the four and five guys are crap shoots at best at this point in their careers.
      
      I assume you were referring to the heyday of 1995-2001(ish). I hope you are not comparing this roster, as constructed with those teams yes they had energy but during that run they had starters like Dennis Martinez, Orel Hershiser, Charles Nagy, and young Bartolo Colon amongst others. Offensively they trotted out, on a regular basis Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Roberto Alomar, David Justice, Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar (the man could call a game), Matt Williams, Albert Belle and Eddie Murray. It is not just “stolen bases and energy.” Compare those lineups to this one and you cannot tell me you are even close to on par as constructed. Your Heyday players obviously scored runs and stole bases that’s what happens when HOF caliber players are on your roster.
      
      And to say the team lost spark or energy by June does not paint a complete picture in my eyes. 52 games through the beginning of June, they were 28-24 with 15 wins coming against under .500 teams with one home three games sweep against Detroit (the only three games you played against them at that point in the year) and were 4-8 against the White Sox. I would think the change in win total is more related to the quality of opponent. From the beginning of June through July the Indians lost two or three to those Tigers you swept earlier, played the Yankees (swept), Reds (split), Orioles (split), Rays (split) amongst others. In my opinion their schedule caught up with them.
      
      Francona is obviously a coaching upgrade, I would not dispute that. For yours and other Indians fans sake I hope I am wrong and it gets better but from a numbers perspective it just doesn’t add up. Thanks again for the post.
      
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Kyle Gajowski

This article shows you know very little about baseball. Yes I am an indians fan and I amm picking them for third place not first so it is not like I am being very biased. The fact you picked the twins over them shows you lack the knowledge to make accurate predictions. There rotation was so bad last year that it is almost impossible for them to be worse. Last year for a majority of the year the team was filled with pitches like jeremy accardo, josh tomlin, scott maine, dan wheekler, jair acenscio, jeanmar gomez, roberto hernadez and derek lowe. They have been replaced by carrasco, bauer, matt albers, bryan shaw, rich hill, matt capps, bretty myers and possible come backs dice-k or scott kazmir. If you can’t notice an upgrade especially in the bullpen than thats a lack of baseball knowledge of those players past stats. The improved defense will also give up less runs. I read an article that predicted the indians new defense would have been predicted to have given up 50 less runs than last yr which already makes an impact. If you feel the twins will finish ahead of them than im guessing you dont really do your homework. There is no way the indians lose less than 70 games. You replace kotchman with swisher, hafner with reynolds, hannahan, Duncan/Damon with Brantley, Choo with stubbs and you add aviles a guy who started and had 13hrs and 60 rbis last yr. This yr all the pressure will not be on santana, kipnis and cabrera. With swisher, reynolds and bourn in the lineup it takes pressure off. The lineup is improved and that not even including if chisenhall puts up decent numbers like 18hrs and 70 rbis, and stubbs puts up 14 and 55 rbis, which are both reasonable let alone if one of them breaks out.

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- Adam Solowiei
  
  Kyle,
  Thanks for the “pull no punches” response. I love to read them. Obviously we differ on the quality of team being trotted out onto the field. I stand by the thoughts presented in the piece. I never said the Indians offense was bad. I merely said it was not top tier and that is obvious. My point, and the one you so nicely avoided was the Indians starting rotation. Do you honestly feel the Indians rotation is even decent? Obviously no. It is just not good and lacks a lefty. So an upgrade in the bullpen (or having one of the best in baseball), while nice, will be sure to keep the team trailing 7-4 when it is handed over to them in the 5th inning by this starting rotation.Yes I put them below the Twins. 70 wins to 65, neither is something to write home to mom about. I agree there is no way the Indians lose less than 70 games. In fact they will probably lose 90+ unless of course that was not what you meant by the statement. With that being said Kyle, if they exceed what I think they will do I will gladly post a piece explaining how I was wrong and even mention that you called it (unless of course they finish behind the Twins). Lets talk again in October and see who was closer. Thanks again.
  
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Kyle Gajowski

This article shows you know very little about baseball. Yes I am an indians fan and I amm picking them for third place not first so it is not like I am being very biased. The fact you picked the twins over them shows you lack the knowledge to make accurate predictions. There rotation was so bad last year that it is almost impossible for them to be worse. Last year for a majority of the year the team was filled with pitches like jeremy accardo, josh tomlin, scott maine, dan wheekler, jair acenscio, jeanmar gomez, roberto hernadez and derek lowe. They have been replaced by carrasco, bauer, matt albers, bryan shaw, rich hill, matt capps, bretty myers and possible come backs dice-k or scott kazmir. If you can’t notice an upgrade especially in the bullpen than thats a lack of baseball knowledge of those players past stats. The improved defense will also give up less runs. I read an article that predicted the indians new defense would have been predicted to have given up 50 less runs than last yr which already makes an impact. If you feel the twins will finish ahead of them than im guessing you dont really do your homework. There is no way the indians lose less than 70 games. You replace kotchman with swisher, hafner with reynolds, hannahan, Duncan/Damon with Brantley, Choo with stubbs and you add aviles a guy who started and had 13hrs and 60 rbis last yr. This yr all the pressure will not be on santana, kipnis and cabrera. With swisher, reynolds and bourn in the lineup it takes pressure off. The lineup is improved and that not even including if chisenhall puts up decent numbers like 18hrs and 70 rbis, and stubbs puts up 14 and 55 rbis, which are both reasonable let alone if one of them breaks out.

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Park

The shocking part is that you picked a much improved Indians team to win less games. Detroit is obviously the team to beat in the AL central. Defensively, we will have one of the best teams, which will help our pitchers. I agree there are question marks regarding our staff. Master son’s record as a starter is skewed by a lack of run support. Our lineup looks to be more defined, with no hole in left field. That position had a BA on par with Bob Uecker. We have Reynolds at DH, as opposed to Hafner. We have a healthy chisenhall at third, swisher at first, and kipnis showing promise at second. I agree that stealing bases is not the total answer offensively, but we are fielding an offensive unit that looks to be made up of hustling, hard-nosed players. Our bullpen should be solid. As for our starting pitching, I agree we have serious issues there. We have masterson who has a high ERA, an unknown in Bauer(given his youth and whether or not he will be ready this year), Brett Myers should give us a solid season, carrasco is coming off of an injury, McAllister who at 24 posted an ERA of 4.47, we have also taken shots with invites to Dice K and Kazmir..who may or may not help. I don’t expect Jiminez to make the club. As far as our starting pitching goes, I do not expect it to be worse than last year. We have made a couple of upgrades by getting Bauer and adding Myers. Carrasco, masterson, Mcallister. We lack a lefty and a true number one. However, if our pitching staff were the same as last year, with a better defense to support them, would they not be better just based on this? I look at the Indians as a 500 club. Their win range should be 75-85 games based on the fact that the team is better defensively, offensively, and will be better coached. I do not see how, based on their offseason moves, that they are a worse team than last year. I’ve looked at this as objectively as I could. The old white sox are a year older while losing key players. They will finish 4th. The Royals are a young up and coming ball club. I look for them to finish second. The Twins are the worst team in the division. I appreciate you taking the time to answer the other comments, and being objective in proving your points. In conclusion, if the Indians upgraded their coaching, their defense, and their lineup, how can they win less games than last year; even IF their heir starting pitching is as bad as last year?

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- Adam Solowiei
  
  Park,
  
  You made a nice post and thanks for breaking down your opinion. As always debate is a great thing. I am not going to rehash everything I said in reply to the other comments (absolutely nothing personal) but to hit on a couple of things…
  
  I am not sure how skewed Masterson’s record is to be honest with you. In 2011 (his one so so year) he had an ERA around 3.20 and his record was reflective. In 2010 his ERA was 4.70 and in 2012 it was 4.93. With ERAs that high it is not a matter of purely run support as it is sub-par pitching.
  
  Jiminez, in my opinion, will make it. Who do you think would replace him? And when you have to bring in Dice-K and Kazmir as hopeful starters that doesn’t bode well.
  
  As I had said before, I like the Indians bullpen. I just have almost zero faith in the starting 5 or 7 to get the team to a lead when it would matter.
  
  If you look at it 1 for 1 I consider, at this point in time, Stubbs a regression or on par with Choo when all things are considered (OBP, Fielding, contact, walks etc) Stubbs is good but I do not see it as a major upgrade.
  
  I put emphasis on rotation as this offense is good not great and I do not have faith they can win a ton of slug fests. Terry Francona is obviously an upgrade as the manager but the same thing cursed him that does every Yankee manager. He was given a ton of weapons to work with so his results might have a slight skew probably why he could not snag a Manager of the Year with those teams. He is very good though.
  
  The Bourn addition will help no question but remember this was published before the Bourn signing. An update for each division will come out at the end of spring training when more data and evaluation will be done. Staff? Offense? Defense? Etc.
  
  When I broke it down it was not merely the improvements or lack of improvements for each team but how those affect the teams they are scheduled to play and the adjustments those teams have made as well.
  
  Check back at the end of spring training and see if anything changes:)
  
  Again thanks for the great post.
  
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FartingHorse

Seems uninventive. Sometimes divisions change this little year to year, but it looks like you just took last years records and added or subtracted a couple wins from each club. No doubt, Detroit will still be heads above everyone else. No questions there. I don’t really know much about the White Sox, Twins, or Indians. I’m a Royals fan, so I’m biased, but the Royals made vast improvements to pitching. Last year Chen was our number 1 and Hochevar was our number 2. I love Chen and the fact that he’s able to compete without blistering stuff, but there’s no way you’re going to be a legitimate ball club if he’s your ace. This year, Chen and Hochevar are competing for the 5th spot. And we’ve got some young pitchers, Duffy and Paulino, who were both doing quite well before they had to get Tommy John’s. I know Guthrie and Wade Davis aren’t flashy with big strikeout numbers and wouldn’t be surprised if Santana didn’t do anything special, but the point is we actually have a real rotation this year and won’t have to scrounge together wins while rotating pitchers up and down from the minors every day to keep a fresh long-reliever in the bullpen. We also still have a really great defensive team. Hitting-wise we didn’t really pick up anything, but Hosmer, Moustakas, and Perez are all ready to break out. I’m hoping Alcides can keep up close to his hitting last year. Gordon and Butler are proven now and will continue to be a threat. The main weakspot is if Francoeur continues to suck. Now that we actually have some pitching and the hitting is trending upward, this is the first complete Royals team I’ve seen in my life. You mark my words that they will have at least 10 more wins than last year. I’m hoping for the 85-88 range.

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- Adam Solowiei
  
  It might seem uninventive but sometimes in divisions it is what it is. Sure I could take a flier and say the Royals or Indians will win 90 games but I just do not feel that is the case.
  
  I would not dispute, and did mention, that the Royals made improvements in their rotation. That is relative though. Is Shields an improvement? Of course. Davis is not great and Guthrie is not great and has never been (minus that small window last year which I am sure you hope is the new guy). You are banking on a couple of guys off of major surgery which is a gamble (and one that as a Royals fan you should take) but one I am not willing to bank on since at best case you can expect some serious inning limitations.
  
  Hitting is something I also can see your point of view. You are hoping they break out but there is no data from an unbiased perspective to say that is the case minus a simple ole gut feeling. And Hosmer needs to fix the regression from last year. Not sure where hitting is trending upward.
  
  I hope for your sake they win 85 games but looking at it from an unbiased perspective it just doesn’t seem like more than 75 wins. It all might seem uninventive but sometimes that is the reality. That’s the beauty of sports, we all get an opinion. Thanks for the response and good luck this year.
  
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