The first two legs of the Triple Crown Series are behind us and we are on to the 2016 Belmont Stakes. The historical relevance might not match last year’s American Pharoah Triple Crown but that does not take away from the significance of this year’s edition.
Victories in the Kentucky Derby by Nyquist and the Preakness Stakes, by Exaggerator set up a battle to cement themselves as the leading three-year-old entering the summer campaign. But alas, Nyquist had spiked a fever which had his connections end him back to California to get ready for the summer season and Breeders’ Cup in the fall. With that, Exaggerator will be only one of two to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown and will be the favorite on the morning line come Wednesday. Kent Desormeaux will still have the mount on Exaggerator despite his rehab stint for issues that have been plaguing him for years.
Below is a simple breakdown of each horse that is slated to enter the starting gate this Saturday. What you will see is not a complete stat sheet for each horse since you can get that from Daily Racing Form or Equibase. Instead it is my evaluation summed up to help each of you make a decision when you walk to the window, the machine or click a mouse to make a wager on the 2016 Belmont Stakes. Let’s take a look at the 2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders, Picks, Predictions, Betting, Longshot in hopes of ensuring a great day.
Race: Belmont Stakes (G1)
Distance: Mile and a half
Age: 3 Year Olds
Date: Saturday, June 11 2016
Post Time: 6:32 PM ET
Belmont Stakes Prep Coverage: NBCSN 3:00 PM – 5 PM EST
Belmont Stakes Prime Coverage: NBC 5:00 – 7:00 PM ET
The Backstory – Over the years I have continued to modify how I break down each race based on input from the readers (Thank for your reading and leaving feedback). Years ago I provided very granular and in-depth analysis of each horse in the field. However, as many claimed the reading was dry and over the top as such I began the change. Now you will find data about each horse, how it should shake out, and we will have a little fun doing it.
If you want just the raw numbers then Brisnet, Equibase, or even the Daily Racing Form are right up your alley (and mine since I love them all) but if you want the breakdown with a twist then read on and enjoy. The track record is solid since I tend to stick with the big races each year. You will not find a breakdown of a claiming race next Sunday but if you want the major preps, Triple Crown series, Travers, and more than this is the place for you.
2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders, Picks, Predictions, Betting, Longshot Analysis
|1||14-1||Governor Malibu||J Rosario||7 Starts, 2-3-1|
|Never finished worse than third at level of any race. Working his way up the ladder if only with two wins. Second last time out in the Peter Pan, the local Belmont prep. Trainer and jockey have won Belmont before. If the top misfires, there is a chance.|
|2||6-1||Destin||J Castellano||6 Starts, 3-1-0|
|Three back scored solid win in G3 Sam Davis and to back he set the track record at Tampa Bay Derby. Entered Kentucky Derby off two month break and came home sixth. Pedigree from Giant's Causeway suggests the distance can be had but it will be a step forward. JC and Pletcher combo is solid. Has a win at Big Sandy already. Could be big day Saturday.|
|3||8-1||Cherry Wine||Lanerie||9 Starts, 2-2-2|
|He has been stakes placed in the Grade 2 Rebel and the Grade 1 Blue Grass but did not score in either. In fact, he is winless above maiden or allowance competition. His wins against less have been impressive and he did hit the board in the Blue Grass. Followed up with a solid runner-up in the Preakness on a poor track. He stepped forward lately finishing fourth, then third, then second in Preakness, could a Belmont win be next?|
|4||10-1||Suddenbreakingnews||M Smith||9 Starts, 3-4-0|
|Southwest Stakes winner will be looking for a pace breakdown. Came home fifth in the Kentucky Derby and took the Preakness off to rest. There is talent in him and he has a two time Belmont winning jockey in Mike Smith on his back. A threat and like Exaggerator, will not mind if rain rolls in.|
|5||5-1||Stradivari||J Velazquez||4 Starts, 2-0-0|
|Lightly raced with only four starts but two of last three have been dominant to say the least. He captured a 1 1/16 mile maiden special weight by 11+ lengths at Gulfstream and then came back after four months to score an allowance win at Keeneland by 14+ lengths going 1 1/8 miles. The step up to the Preakness was other than impressive but you can make an excuse. Looking for angles he has two dominant scores and is third off the layoff. Could be a major factor especially with stalking ability.|
|6||30-1||Gettysburg||P Lopez||7 Starts, 1-1-2|
|Here lives the speed for this years Belmont Stakes. One lifetime score followed by two poor stakes performance and a third place in a Belmont allowance in last. Asmussen recently took over trainer duties but unless he found magic it is hard to find a way.|
|7||30-1||Seeking The Soul||F Geroux||3 Starts, 1-1-0|
|Talk about a challenge. Dallas Stewart must love him since he entered him in the 1 1/2 mile monster after breaking maiden by a neck at Churchill. Talk about a challenge.|
|8||30-1||Forever D'Oro||J Ortiz||3 Starts, 1-0-0|
|Another Dallas Stewart brings in off a maiden score. The one plus if looking for any type of angle is the maiden win was here at Big Sandy. And…an Ortiz brother is in the saddle.|
|9||30-1||Trojan Nation||A Gryder||7 Starts, 0-1-3|
|Finished second in the Wood at mega odds after leaving California due to poor performances. If anything, this is an indictment of all who ran in the Wood and not a compliment for him. Laid about what you would expect in the Kentucky Derby. Maiden tries again and even in this lighter field it is hard to find a way that he hits the board.|
|10||20-1||Lani||Y Take||8 Starts, 3-1-0|
|UAE Derby winner was slow and bumped out of the Derby gate. Finished ninth as a complete non-factor. Closed past five in the Preakness as a non-factoring fifth in hopes of returning to UAE Derby form (which is over-rated) Temperamental colt will need to stay settled until the gate flies open but there is a chance that this one could be an exotics factor given the competition however it just appears ownership is more stubborn than anything.|
|11||9-5||Exaggerator||K Desormeaux||11 Starts, 5-3-1|
|Owns the biggest speed figure of all at but it was in the slop so take that into consideration. Tore up SV, then missed the SF, then came back with a huge performance in the SA Derby. When on he is huge but when he is not he is still in the mix so do not toss. Huge run in a perfect trip for closer ended with a Preakness win and Kentucky Derby runner-up. The deserving favorite but is beatable given the right trip.|
|12||20-1||Brody's Cause||L Saez||7 Starts, 3-0-1|
|Returned to form in a big way during a Blue Grass score coming from way off the pace. A non-factor seventh in the Kentucky Derby after breaking from post 19. Most success has been in Kentucky but appears to enjoy Big Sandy. Expect a big day from Saez and his mount.|
|13||10-1||Creator||I Ortiz||9 Starts, 2-4-1|
|It appears that he is rounding into form are maturing at the right time. Solid in the Rebel but impressed in a last-to-first win in the Arkansas Derby. He comes late but will need a hot pace like he saw at Oaklawn. Can you toss the poor 13th in the Kentucky Derby as an aberration or is it a sign that top level comp is just to much for him? hard pressed to ask for a better NY jockey than his. Clearly a plus.|
2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders, Picks, Predictions, Betting, Longshot Race Strategy and Betting Options
Here we are, the final leg of the 2016 Triple Crown series and there is no Triple Crown on the line. Basically, things are back to normal. Exaggerator will be the heavy favorite and you can expect to get 3-5 or worse on him at post time. I am not willing to take a horse with over half of his races ending in a loss as a favorite like that. He has also proven the most formidable when racing on sloppy, wet or off tracks. While he might beat me, the money just does not make sense to bet him. Instead, let’s find a way to beat him and profit on Saturday. And if we are wrong, we will chalk things up and move on to the second season, the summer.
How will it all shake out? It is almost impossible to tell but based on the data I provided in the contenders analysis and the preceding paragraphs, I present some logical betting options based on your favorite cup of tea or betting style. How do you bet a horse race?? What type of bankroll are you playing with? Is it about having a good time and being a part of the spectacle? Or is it about finding a way to make money? No matter what you want or the size of your bankroll there are different ways you can approach the 2016 Belmont Stakes.
Below are my examples of how to play the 2016 Belmont Stakes based on bankroll. This is a first look at the field in an attempt to maximize a “safe bet” return for the 2016 Belmont Stakes Contenders, Picks, Predictions, Betting, Longshot
Live Longshot – Post 12, Brody’s Cause
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 12|
|$1 Trifecta Box||2 with 3 with 12|
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 12|
|$1 Trifecta Box||2 with 3 with 12|
|$4 Win / Place||2|
|$1 Exacta Box||2 with 3 with 11 with 12|
|$1 Trifecta Box||2 with 3 with 11 with 12|
|$.10 Super Box||2 with 3 with 4 with 11 with 12|